Football · China Division 1 · 18/10, 13:30

Prediction: Meizhou Hakka vs Nantong Zhiyun

Team pages: Meizhou Hakka · Nantong Zhiyun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Meizhou Hakka0.92

Nantong Zhiyun2.01

1X2

16% 23% 62%

Meizhou Hakka Draw Nantong Zhiyun

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Meizhou Hakka 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWLDL

Nantong Zhiyun 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWLDWLWWW

Head-to-head

Meizhou Hakka 3–1–2 Nantong Zhiyun (6 last)

Nantong Zhiyun1-3Meizhou Hakka
Meizhou Hakka2-1Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun1-0Meizhou Hakka
Meizhou Hakka0-4Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun2-2Meizhou Hakka
Nantong Zhiyun0-1Meizhou Hakka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Meizhou Hakka 1452 · Nantong Zhiyun 1528

	Meizhou Hakka	Draw	Nantong Zhiyun
Our model	15%	23%	62%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Zhiyun (rating 1452 vs 1528).
H2H favours Meizhou Hakka: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Meizhou Hakka	Nantong Zhiyun
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.2	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	3.1 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.75

X4.00

21.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.30 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.11
2	1.44 → 1.45▲	Pinn 1.48

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +7’	6.00	4.00	1.44
15:51 +19’	5.75▼	4.00	1.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +124’	6.22	4.01	1.50
20:41 +24’	5.93▼	3.93▼	1.53▲
09:29 +6’	6.16▲	4.00▲	1.50▼
11:11 +86’	6.30▲	4.11▲	1.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Meizhou Hakka 3–1–2 Nantong Zhiyun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	1-3 HT 0-1	Meizhou Hakka
13/07/24 China Super League	Meizhou Hakka	2-1 HT 0-1	Nantong Zhiyun
05/04/24 China Super League	Nantong Zhiyun	1-0 HT 0-0	Meizhou Hakka
29/10/23 China Super League	Meizhou Hakka	0-4 HT 0-1	Nantong Zhiyun
02/07/23 China Super League	Nantong Zhiyun	2-2 HT 0-1	Meizhou Hakka
15/08/21 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	0-1 HT 0-1	Meizhou Hakka

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	26	18	6	2	55	22	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	26	13	9	4	35	20	48
3	Guangxi Hengchen	26	13	7	6	41	28	46
4	Shenzhen Juniors	26	12	9	5	41	30	45
5	Shaanxi Union	26	12	6	8	47	28	42
6	Yanbian Longding	27	10	9	8	39	29	39
7	Wuxi Wugo	26	10	6	10	41	31	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	26	9	8	9	23	25	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	10	5	11	39	42	31
10	Ningbo Professional FC	26	9	6	11	27	31	30
11	Dalian K'un City	26	7	9	10	31	38	30
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	7	10	9	30	35	28
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	26	4	12	10	36	49	24
14	Nanjing City	26	5	7	14	21	37	22
15	Meizhou Hakka	26	7	4	15	25	53	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	27	3	7	17	26	59	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Meizhou Hakka	Nantong Zhiyun
Wuxi Wugo	0-3 L	3-1 W
Nanjing City	2-1 W	1-1 D
Ningbo Professional FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-5 L	1-1 D
Guangxi Hengchen	0-1 L	0-1 L
Suzhou Dongwu	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Zhiyun (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Meizhou Hakka

LWLLDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-3	17	0	L
06/10	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
19/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	1-3	9	3	L
13/09	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-5	1	2	L
30/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	1-5	5	2	L
15/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
08/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	3-2	4	5	W
02/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

Nantong Zhiyun

DDWLDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-1	14	4	L
13/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
22/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	3-1	4-1	7	5	W
16/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
08/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	9	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Meizhou Hakka vs Nantong Zhiyun?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nantong Zhiyun win (62%). Probabilities: Meizhou Hakka 16%, draw 23%, Nantong Zhiyun 62%.

How many goals are expected in Meizhou Hakka vs Nantong Zhiyun?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Meizhou Hakka 0.92 · Nantong Zhiyun 2.01), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Meizhou Hakka vs Nantong Zhiyun?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.