Football · China Division 1 · 11/10, 13:00

Prediction: Guangxi Hengchen vs Shenzhen Juniors

Team pages: Guangxi Hengchen · Shenzhen Juniors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Guangxi Hengchen1.61

Shenzhen Juniors1.2

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Guangxi Hengchen Draw Shenzhen Juniors

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangxi Hengchen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWWWL

Shenzhen Juniors 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWDDL

Head-to-head

Guangxi Hengchen 1–2–0 Shenzhen Juniors (3 last)

Shenzhen Juniors1-1Guangxi Hengchen
Guangxi Hengchen2-2Shenzhen Juniors
Shenzhen Juniors0-1Guangxi Hengchen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangxi Hengchen 1539 · Shenzhen Juniors 1529

	Guangxi Hengchen	Draw	Shenzhen Juniors
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangxi Hengchen	Shenzhen Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.9	3.5 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.02
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.49
2	3.50 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.54 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +15’	1.83	3.50	3.50
20:29 +6’	1.90▲	3.40▼	3.30▼
22:49 +8’	1.85▼	3.50▲	3.40▲
05:58 +7’	1.95▲	3.40▼	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:09 +16’	1.92	3.47	3.73
07:59 +16’	1.93▲	3.56▲	3.58▼
09:31 +4’	1.99▲	3.47▼	3.47▼
11:00 +8’	2.01▲	3.53▲	3.53▲
12:15 +1’	2.02▲	3.49▼	3.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangxi Hengchen 1–2–0 Shenzhen Juniors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	1-1 HT 0-0	Guangxi Hengchen
14/07/24 China Division 2	Guangxi Hengchen	2-2 HT 2-0	Shenzhen Juniors
04/05/24 China Division 2	Shenzhen Juniors	0-1 HT 0-0	Guangxi Hengchen

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	25	17	6	2	52	21	57
2	Guangxi Hengchen	25	13	6	6	40	27	45
3	Nantong Zhiyun	25	12	9	4	34	20	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	12	8	5	40	29	44
5	Shaanxi Union	25	11	6	8	42	27	39
6	Wuxi Wugo	26	10	6	10	41	31	36
7	Yanbian Longding	25	9	9	7	34	28	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	26	9	8	9	23	25	35
9	Changchun Yatai	26	10	5	11	39	42	31
10	Dalian K'un City	26	7	9	10	31	38	30
11	Ningbo Professional FC	25	9	5	11	27	31	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	26	7	10	9	30	35	28
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	25	4	12	9	35	46	24
14	Nanjing City	25	5	6	14	21	37	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	26	7	4	15	25	53	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	25	3	7	15	25	49	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangxi Hengchen	Shenzhen Juniors
Foshan Nanshi	0-1 L	2-1 W
Wuxi Wugo	1-0 W	1-0 W
Yanbian Longding	2-1 W	1-0 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Nanjing City	2-0 W	3-1 W
Meizhou Hakka	1-0 W	5-1 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-2 L	1-4 L
Ningbo Professional FC	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen Juniors (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangxi Hengchen

WLWDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
25/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
18/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	3	4	W

Shenzhen Juniors

LWWDWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-4	4	4	L
19/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	1-1	11	6	D
13/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
06/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	5-1	8	2	W
29/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
23/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
16/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
09/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
02/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
25/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shenzhen Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangxi Hengchen win (46%). Probabilities: Guangxi Hengchen 46%, draw 27%, Shenzhen Juniors 27%.

How many goals are expected in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Guangxi Hengchen 1.61 · Shenzhen Juniors 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangxi Hengchen vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.