Football · China Division 1 · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: Foshan Nanshi vs Nanjing City

Team pages: Foshan Nanshi · Nanjing City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Foshan Nanshi1.11

Nanjing City1.64

1X2

25% 27% 49%

Foshan Nanshi Draw Nanjing City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Foshan Nanshi 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLDWLL

Nanjing City 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Foshan Nanshi 0–3–3 Nanjing City (6 last)

Nanjing City3-1Foshan Nanshi
Nanjing City1-1Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi1-3Nanjing City
Foshan Nanshi0-0Nanjing City
Nanjing City0-0Foshan Nanshi
Nanjing City2-1Foshan Nanshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foshan Nanshi 1423 · Nanjing City 1440

	Foshan Nanshi	Draw	Nanjing City
Our model	25%	27%	49%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nanjing City: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foshan Nanshi	Nanjing City
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.7	0.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.6	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 4.17 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.72
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06 +2’	3.60	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:56 +14’	4.29	3.72	1.74
02:45 +25’	4.17▼	3.72	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foshan Nanshi 0–3–3 Nanjing City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 China Division 1	Nanjing City	3-1 HT 3-0	Foshan Nanshi
21/09/25 China Division 1	Nanjing City	1-1 HT 1-0	Foshan Nanshi
11/05/25 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-3 HT 1-3	Nanjing City
31/08/24 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Nanjing City
13/04/24 China Division 1	Nanjing City	0-0 HT 0-0	Foshan Nanshi
06/08/23 China Division 1	Nanjing City	2-1 HT 0-1	Foshan Nanshi

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	27	18	6	3	55	26	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	14	9	4	36	20	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	13	8	6	43	30	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	12	10	5	42	31	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	13	6	8	51	28	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	10	9	8	39	29	39
7	Wuxi Wugo	27	10	6	11	41	33	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	27	9	8	10	23	26	35
9	Changchun Yatai	27	10	6	11	41	44	32
10	Ningbo Professional FC	27	9	7	11	28	32	31
11	Dalian K'un City	27	7	10	10	32	39	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	7	11	9	31	36	29
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	27	5	12	10	38	49	27
14	Nanjing City	27	6	7	14	22	37	25
15	Meizhou Hakka	27	7	4	16	25	54	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	27	3	7	17	26	59	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foshan Nanshi	Nanjing City
Shaanxi Union	1-5 L	1-4 L
Guangxi Hengchen	1-0 W	0-2 L
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Suzhou Dongwu	2-3 L	0-2 L
Shenzhen Juniors	1-2 L	1-3 L
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Meizhou Hakka	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Foshan Nanshi (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Foshan Nanshi

LLLLDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-5	4	1	L
11/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	1-5	5	4	L
07/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
05/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-5	0-6	4	0	L
16/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L

Nanjing City

DDLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
07/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-1	1-4	1	3	L
19/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
13/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
06/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
08/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	0	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foshan Nanshi vs Nanjing City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nanjing City win (49%). Probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 25%, draw 27%, Nanjing City 49%.

How many goals are expected in Foshan Nanshi vs Nanjing City?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Foshan Nanshi 1.11 · Nanjing City 1.64), with a 56% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Nanjing City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.