Football · China Division 1 · 25/10, 12:30

Prediction: Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Yanbian Longding

Team pages: Dingnan Ganlian FC · Yanbian Longding

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Dingnan Ganlian FC1.38

Yanbian Longding1.33

1X2

37% 29% 34%

Dingnan Ganlian FC Draw Yanbian Longding

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dingnan Ganlian FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLDDLW

Yanbian Longding 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Dingnan Ganlian FC 1–1–4 Yanbian Longding (6 last)

Yanbian Longding3-0Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC2-1Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding3-0Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC0-1Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding3-2Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC1-1Yanbian Longding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1461 · Yanbian Longding 1475

	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Draw	Yanbian Longding
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yanbian Longding: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Yanbian Longding
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.3	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.18
2	2.50 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.83 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:07 +10’	2.60	3.00	2.50
04:12 +12’	2.45▼	3.00	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:14 +3’	2.53	3.11	2.62
01:26 +56’	2.58▲	3.18▲	2.66▲
05:23 +55’	2.44▼	3.18	2.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1–1–4 Yanbian Longding

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	3-0 HT 1-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC
04/10/25 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Yanbian Longding
26/05/25 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	3-0 HT 2-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC
21/09/24 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Yanbian Longding
04/05/24 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	3-2 HT 1-1	Dingnan Ganlian FC
10/10/23 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Yanbian Longding

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	27	18	6	3	55	26	60
2	Nantong Zhiyun	27	14	9	4	36	20	51
3	Guangxi Hengchen	27	13	8	6	43	30	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	27	12	10	5	42	31	46
5	Shaanxi Union	27	13	6	8	51	28	45
6	Yanbian Longding	27	10	9	8	39	29	39
7	Wuxi Wugo	27	10	6	11	41	33	36
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	27	9	8	10	23	26	35
9	Changchun Yatai	27	10	6	11	41	44	32
10	Ningbo Professional FC	27	9	7	11	28	32	31
11	Dalian K'un City	27	7	10	10	32	39	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	27	7	11	9	31	36	29
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	27	5	12	10	38	49	27
14	Nanjing City	27	6	7	14	22	37	25
15	Meizhou Hakka	27	7	4	16	25	54	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	27	3	7	17	26	59	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dingnan Ganlian FC	Yanbian Longding
Wuxi Wugo	2-0 W	0-2 L
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-3 L	1-2 L
Foshan Nanshi	1-1 D	5-0 W
Changchun Yatai	0-1 L	1-1 D
Shaanxi Union	1-2 L	1-3 L
Dalian K'un City	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Yanbian Longding (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dingnan Ganlian FC

WDLLLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
11/10	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
06/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
19/09	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
05/09	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	1	L
29/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-1	3-4	3	1	L
22/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
16/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	5	1	W

Yanbian Longding

LWWLLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	5-0	5	1	W
11/10	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
06/10	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
18/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
29/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	1	5	W
15/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-0	3-1	0	5	W
09/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Yanbian Longding?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dingnan Ganlian FC win (37%). Probabilities: Dingnan Ganlian FC 37%, draw 29%, Yanbian Longding 34%.

How many goals are expected in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Yanbian Longding?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Dingnan Ganlian FC 1.38 · Yanbian Longding 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dingnan Ganlian FC vs Yanbian Longding?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.