Football · China Division 1 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Nantong Zhiyun vs Foshan Nanshi

Team pages: Nantong Zhiyun · Foshan Nanshi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Nantong Zhiyun2.54

Foshan Nanshi0.75

1X2

76% 14% 9%

Nantong Zhiyun Draw Foshan Nanshi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nantong Zhiyun 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWWWWL

Foshan Nanshi 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Nantong Zhiyun 2–1–0 Foshan Nanshi (3 last)

Foshan Nanshi1-2Nantong Zhiyun
Foshan Nanshi1-1Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun2-0Foshan Nanshi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nantong Zhiyun 1550 · Foshan Nanshi 1397

	Nantong Zhiyun	Draw	Foshan Nanshi
Our model	75%	16%	8%
Market	77%	13%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Zhiyun (rating 1550 vs 1397).
H2H favours Nantong Zhiyun: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nantong Zhiyun	Foshan Nanshi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.1 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/20/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:53 +16’	1.17	7.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nantong Zhiyun 2–1–0 Foshan Nanshi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-2 HT 1-1	Nantong Zhiyun
03/08/25 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-1 HT 0-0	Nantong Zhiyun
13/04/25 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	2-0 HT 2-0	Foshan Nanshi

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	29	18	8	3	57	28	62
2	Nantong Zhiyun	29	15	9	5	37	21	54
3	Shaanxi Union	29	14	6	9	53	30	48
4	Guangxi Hengchen	29	13	8	8	46	35	47
5	Shenzhen Juniors	29	12	11	6	42	32	47
6	Yanbian Longding	29	12	9	8	42	30	45
7	Wuxi Wugo	29	12	6	11	45	34	42
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	29	10	9	10	27	29	39
9	Changchun Yatai	29	12	6	11	46	45	38
10	Ningbo Professional FC	29	10	7	12	34	36	34
11	Dalian K'un City	29	8	10	11	35	43	34
12	Nanjing City	29	8	7	14	29	39	31
13	Suzhou Dongwu	29	7	12	10	32	38	30
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	29	5	13	11	39	51	28
15	Meizhou Hakka	29	7	4	18	26	60	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	29	3	7	19	29	68	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nantong Zhiyun	Foshan Nanshi
Changchun Yatai	0-1 L	0-6 L
Shenzhen Juniors	1-0 W	1-2 L
Yanbian Longding	1-0 W	0-5 L
Ningbo Professional FC	1-0 W	1-4 L
Guangxi Hengchen	0-1 L	1-0 W
Dalian K'un City	2-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Zhiyun (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nantong Zhiyun

LDWLWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
24/10	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
18/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
11/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-1	14	4	L
13/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-2	2-3	9	5	L

Foshan Nanshi

LLDLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-2	1-4	5	0	L
24/10	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	2-5	3	1	L
17/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-5	4	1	L
11/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	1-5	5	4	L
07/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
19/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
05/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-5	0-6	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nantong Zhiyun vs Foshan Nanshi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nantong Zhiyun win (76%). Probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 76%, draw 14%, Foshan Nanshi 9%.

How many goals are expected in Nantong Zhiyun vs Foshan Nanshi?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Nantong Zhiyun 2.54 · Foshan Nanshi 0.75), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Foshan Nanshi?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.