Football · China Division 1 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Shaanxi Union vs Guangxi Hengchen

Team pages: Shaanxi Union · Guangxi Hengchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Shaanxi Union1.75

Guangxi Hengchen1.27

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Shaanxi Union Draw Guangxi Hengchen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Shaanxi Union 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Guangxi Hengchen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shaanxi Union 2–1 Guangxi Hengchen (3 last)

Guangxi Hengchen3-0Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union2-0Guangxi Hengchen
Guangxi Hengchen1-2Shaanxi Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shaanxi Union 1553 · Guangxi Hengchen 1504

	Shaanxi Union	Draw	Guangxi Hengchen
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shaanxi Union (rating 1553 vs 1504).
H2H favours Shaanxi Union: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shaanxi Union	Guangxi Hengchen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	3.2 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:07 +2’	1.91	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shaanxi Union 2–0–1 Guangxi Hengchen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 China Division 1	Guangxi Hengchen	3-0 HT 0-0	Shaanxi Union
13/10/24 China Division 2	Shaanxi Union	2-0 HT 1-0	Guangxi Hengchen
07/09/24 China Division 2	Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 HT 0-0	Shaanxi Union

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	29	18	8	3	57	28	62
2	Nantong Zhiyun	29	15	9	5	37	21	54
3	Shaanxi Union	29	14	6	9	53	30	48
4	Guangxi Hengchen	29	13	8	8	46	35	47
5	Shenzhen Juniors	29	12	11	6	42	32	47
6	Yanbian Longding	29	12	9	8	42	30	45
7	Wuxi Wugo	29	12	6	11	45	34	42
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	29	10	9	10	27	29	39
9	Changchun Yatai	29	12	6	11	46	45	38
10	Ningbo Professional FC	29	10	7	12	34	36	34
11	Dalian K'un City	29	8	10	11	35	43	34
12	Nanjing City	29	8	7	14	29	39	31
13	Suzhou Dongwu	29	7	12	10	32	38	30
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	29	5	13	11	39	51	28
15	Meizhou Hakka	29	7	4	18	26	60	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	29	3	7	19	29	68	16

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shaanxi Union	Guangxi Hengchen
Wuxi Wugo	0-2 L	1-2 L
Foshan Nanshi	5-1 W	0-1 L
Nanjing City	4-1 W	2-0 W
Dalian K'un City	3-0 W	2-3 L
Yanbian Longding	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Shaanxi Union (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shaanxi Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
25/10	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
18/10	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	3-0	4-0	1	4	W
11/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	5-1	6	4	W
07/10	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W
27/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
19/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
05/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
29/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	2-1	3-1	4	3	W

Guangxi Hengchen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-1	1-2	15	2	L
24/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-2	2-3	9	4	L
17/10	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
11/10	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
07/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
25/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
18/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
29/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shaanxi Union vs Guangxi Hengchen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shaanxi Union win (47%). Probabilities: Shaanxi Union 47%, draw 26%, Guangxi Hengchen 27%.

How many goals are expected in Shaanxi Union vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Shaanxi Union 1.75 · Guangxi Hengchen 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Shaanxi Union vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.