Football · China Division 1 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Wuxi Wugo vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Wuxi Wugo · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Wuxi Wugo1.5

Changchun Yatai1.46

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Wuxi Wugo Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Wuxi Wugo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDWLWW

Changchun Yatai 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDDDWW

Head-to-head

Wuxi Wugo 1–0 Changchun Yatai (1 last)

Changchun Yatai1-5Wuxi Wugo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wuxi Wugo 1537 · Changchun Yatai 1522

	Wuxi Wugo	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wuxi Wugo	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	2.5 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.30

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
02:06 +3’	2.40	3.30	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wuxi Wugo 1–0–0 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	1-5 HT 0-2	Wuxi Wugo

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	29	18	8	3	57	28	62
2	Nantong Zhiyun	29	15	9	5	37	21	54
3	Shaanxi Union	29	14	6	9	53	30	48
4	Guangxi Hengchen	29	13	8	8	46	35	47
5	Shenzhen Juniors	29	12	11	6	42	32	47
6	Yanbian Longding	29	12	9	8	42	30	45
7	Wuxi Wugo	29	12	6	11	45	34	42
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	29	10	9	10	27	29	39
9	Changchun Yatai	29	12	6	11	46	45	38
10	Ningbo Professional FC	29	10	7	12	34	36	34
11	Dalian K'un City	29	8	10	11	35	43	34
12	Nanjing City	29	8	7	14	29	39	31
13	Suzhou Dongwu	29	7	12	10	32	38	30
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	29	5	13	11	39	51	28
15	Meizhou Hakka	29	7	4	18	26	60	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	29	3	7	19	29	68	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wuxi Wugo	Changchun Yatai
Guangxi Hengchen	2-1 W	2-2 D
Dingnan Ganlian FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Meizhou Hakka	3-0 W	4-1 W
Ningbo Professional FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-3 L	1-0 W
Yanbian Longding	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wuxi Wugo

WLWLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-1	2-1	1	2	W
25/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
17/10	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	3-0	1	0	W
06/10	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
29/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
19/09	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
13/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	1-3	1	3	L
05/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Changchun Yatai

LWWDLDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
24/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-0	4-1	3	3	W
17/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
10/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wuxi Wugo vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wuxi Wugo win (37%). Probabilities: Wuxi Wugo 37%, draw 27%, Changchun Yatai 36%.

How many goals are expected in Wuxi Wugo vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Wuxi Wugo 1.5 · Changchun Yatai 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wuxi Wugo vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.