Football · China Division 1 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Yanbian Longding vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Team pages: Yanbian Longding · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Yanbian Longding1.22

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0.93

1X2

42% 30% 27%

Yanbian Longding Draw Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Yanbian Longding 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLWWW

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDLWD

Head-to-head

Yanbian Longding 2–2–2 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (6 last)

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0-0Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding1-1Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC2-0Yanbian Longding
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0-1Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding1-0Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC3-2Yanbian Longding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yanbian Longding 1506 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1555

	Yanbian Longding	Draw	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (rating 1506 vs 1555).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yanbian Longding	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.4	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:04 +5’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yanbian Longding 2–2–2 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Yanbian Longding
02/08/25 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	1-1 HT 0-1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
13/04/25 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Yanbian Longding
01/09/24 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Yanbian Longding
13/04/24 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	1-0 HT 0-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
13/08/23 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	3-2 HT 2-0	Yanbian Longding

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	29	18	8	3	57	28	62
2	Nantong Zhiyun	29	15	9	5	37	21	54
3	Shaanxi Union	29	14	6	9	53	30	48
4	Guangxi Hengchen	29	13	8	8	46	35	47
5	Shenzhen Juniors	29	12	11	6	42	32	47
6	Yanbian Longding	29	12	9	8	42	30	45
7	Wuxi Wugo	29	12	6	11	45	34	42
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	29	10	9	10	27	29	39
9	Changchun Yatai	29	12	6	11	46	45	38
10	Ningbo Professional FC	29	10	7	12	34	36	34
11	Dalian K'un City	29	8	10	11	35	43	34
12	Nanjing City	29	8	7	14	29	39	31
13	Suzhou Dongwu	29	7	12	10	32	38	30
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	29	5	13	11	39	51	28
15	Meizhou Hakka	29	7	4	18	26	60	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	29	3	7	19	29	68	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yanbian Longding	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Suzhou Dongwu	1-0 W	0-0 D
Dingnan Ganlian FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-2 L	1-1 D
Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 L	1-0 W
Wuxi Wugo	0-2 L	2-0 W
Ningbo Professional FC	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Yanbian Longding

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/10	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
17/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	5-0	5	1	W
11/10	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
06/10	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
18/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
12/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
29/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	1	5	W

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

WWWDWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
24/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	3-0	3-2	2	3	W
18/10	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
10/10	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
19/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-0	3-1	4	3	W
13/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
29/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
22/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yanbian Longding vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yanbian Longding win (42%). Probabilities: Yanbian Longding 42%, draw 30%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Yanbian Longding vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Yanbian Longding 1.22 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Yanbian Longding vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.