Football · China Division 1 · 07/11, 07:30

Prediction: Guangdong GZ-Power vs Nanjing City

Team pages: Guangdong GZ-Power · Nanjing City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Guangdong GZ-Power2.34

Nanjing City0.88

1X2

68% 21% 11%

Guangdong GZ-Power Draw Nanjing City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangdong GZ-Power 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWLDD

Nanjing City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDWWW

Head-to-head

Guangdong GZ-Power 3–0 Nanjing City (3 last)

Nanjing City0-1Guangdong GZ-Power
Guangdong GZ-Power4-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City2-4Guangdong GZ-Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangdong GZ-Power 1566 · Nanjing City 1463

	Guangdong GZ-Power	Draw	Nanjing City
Our model	69%	19%	12%
Market	68%	22%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangdong GZ-Power (rating 1566 vs 1463).
H2H favours Guangdong GZ-Power: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangdong GZ-Power	Nanjing City
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:59 +10’	1.33	4.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong GZ-Power 3–0–0 Nanjing City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 China Division 1	Nanjing City	0-1 HT 0-1	Guangdong GZ-Power
11/10/25 China Division 1	Guangdong GZ-Power	4-1 HT 3-0	Nanjing City
31/05/25 China Division 1	Nanjing City	2-4 HT 1-0	Guangdong GZ-Power

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	29	18	8	3	57	28	62
2	Nantong Zhiyun	29	15	9	5	37	21	54
3	Shaanxi Union	29	14	6	9	53	30	48
4	Guangxi Hengchen	29	13	8	8	46	35	47
5	Shenzhen Juniors	29	12	11	6	42	32	47
6	Yanbian Longding	29	12	9	8	42	30	45
7	Wuxi Wugo	29	12	6	11	45	34	42
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	29	10	9	10	27	29	39
9	Changchun Yatai	29	12	6	11	46	45	38
10	Ningbo Professional FC	29	10	7	12	34	36	34
11	Dalian K'un City	29	8	10	11	35	43	34
12	Nanjing City	29	8	7	14	29	39	31
13	Suzhou Dongwu	29	7	12	10	32	38	30
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	29	5	13	11	39	51	28
15	Meizhou Hakka	29	7	4	18	26	60	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	29	3	7	19	29	68	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangdong GZ-Power	Nanjing City
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Suzhou Dongwu	1-1 D	0-2 L
Shaanxi Union	0-4 L	1-4 L
Shenzhen Juniors	4-1 W	1-3 L
Dalian K'un City	1-1 D	2-0 W
Meizhou Hakka	5-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangdong GZ-Power

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
25/10	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
11/10	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
07/10	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	1-0	4-1	7	4	W
18/09	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
12/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
05/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
30/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	2-0	3-0	7	6	W
22/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-0	5-1	3	2	W

Nanjing City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
24/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	5-2	6	1	W
18/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
07/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-1	1-4	1	3	L
19/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
13/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
06/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-3	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Nanjing City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong GZ-Power win (68%). Probabilities: Guangdong GZ-Power 68%, draw 21%, Nanjing City 11%.

How many goals are expected in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Nanjing City?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Guangdong GZ-Power 2.34 · Nanjing City 0.88), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Nanjing City?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.