Football · China Division 1 · 26/07, 12:00

Prediction: Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Hakka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Yanbian Longding2.12

Meizhou Hakka0.86

1X2

65% 22% 13%

Yanbian Longding Draw Meizhou Hakka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Yanbian Longding 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLWWWD

Meizhou Hakka 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDWLLW

Head-to-head

Yanbian Longding 1–0 Meizhou Hakka (1 last)

Meizhou Hakka0-3Yanbian Longding

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yanbian Longding 1542 · Meizhou Hakka 1468

	Yanbian Longding	Draw	Meizhou Hakka
Our model	65%	21%	13%
Market	65%	22%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanbian Longding (rating 1542 vs 1468).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yanbian Longding	Meizhou Hakka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.2	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.38▼	Pinn 1.65 ★
X	3.75 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	5.50 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +5’	1.50	3.75	5.50
04:20 +2’	1.53▲	3.70▼	5.25▼
06:11 +8’	1.38▼	4.00▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:22	1.65	3.65	5.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Yanbian Longding 1–0–0 Meizhou Hakka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 China Division 1	Meizhou Hakka	0-3 HT 0-2	Yanbian Longding

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	15	10	3	2	28	14	33
2	Shenzhen Juniors	15	7	5	3	26	18	26
3	Nantong Zhiyun	14	7	5	2	14	10	26
4	Guangxi Hengchen	14	7	4	3	22	13	25
5	Yanbian Longding	15	6	7	2	21	12	25
6	Ningbo Professional FC	15	8	3	4	20	16	24
7	Wuxi Wugo	14	5	5	4	26	17	20
8	Shaanxi Union	14	5	4	5	19	12	19
9	Nanjing City	15	5	3	7	14	16	18
10	Dingnan Ganlian FC	15	3	8	4	21	25	17
11	Dalian K'un City	14	4	4	6	19	22	16
12	Changchun Yatai	14	6	1	7	21	27	15
13	Foshan Nanshi	15	2	4	9	16	29	10
14	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	15	2	4	9	7	18	10
15	Meizhou Hakka	15	5	2	8	15	29	8
16	Suzhou Dongwu	15	2	4	9	11	22	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yanbian Longding	Meizhou Hakka
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-0 W	2-2 D
Nantong Zhiyun	0-2 L	3-1 W
Changchun Yatai	2-2 D	1-3 L
Wuxi Wugo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Yanbian Longding

DDLWDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
11/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
04/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
27/06	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
14/06	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
30/05	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
24/05	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	2-0	4-3	1	5	W
16/05	Shanghai Segenda China FA Cup	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
10/05	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/05	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

Meizhou Hakka

LLLWDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	2-0	7	2	W
11/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
05/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-2	1-3	6	0	L
27/06	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	4	W
14/06	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
30/05	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-2	2-2	6	3	D
24/05	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
16/05	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China FA Cup	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
09/05	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
03/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	1-2	1-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Hakka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yanbian Longding win (65%). Probabilities: Yanbian Longding 65%, draw 22%, Meizhou Hakka 13%.

How many goals are expected in Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Hakka?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Yanbian Longding 2.12 · Meizhou Hakka 0.86), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Hakka?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.