Football · China Division 1 · 16/08, 13:30

Prediction: Foshan Nanshi vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Team pages: Foshan Nanshi · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Foshan Nanshi1.08

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC1.08

1X2

35% 31% 35%

Foshan Nanshi Draw Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Foshan Nanshi 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLLLDL

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLDDDW

Head-to-head

Foshan Nanshi 2–3–1 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (6 last)

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC0-1Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi0-0Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC2-2Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi1-1Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC2-1Foshan Nanshi
Foshan Nanshi1-0Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foshan Nanshi 1420 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1466

	Foshan Nanshi	Draw	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	35%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (rating 1420 vs 1466).
H2H favours Foshan Nanshi: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foshan Nanshi	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.86 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.51

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:28 +5’	2.55	3.10	2.55
18:37 +9’	2.63▲	3.10	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:33	2.74	3.13	2.54
18:31 +15’	2.86▲	3.04▼	2.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foshan Nanshi 2–3–1 Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Foshan Nanshi
01/11/25 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	0-0 HT 0-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
29/06/25 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Foshan Nanshi
29/09/24 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-1 HT 1-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
12/05/24 China Division 1	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Foshan Nanshi
27/08/23 China Division 1	Foshan Nanshi	1-0 HT 0-0	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	18	12	4	2	33	16	40
2	Shenzhen Juniors	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
3	Nantong Zhiyun	17	8	7	2	21	13	31
4	Guangxi Hengchen	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
5	Yanbian Longding	18	7	8	3	24	15	29
6	Shaanxi Union	18	7	5	6	27	17	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	18	4	9	5	28	35	21
10	Nanjing City	18	5	5	8	17	20	20
11	Changchun Yatai	18	7	2	9	27	34	19
12	Dalian K'un City	17	4	6	7	22	26	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	18	3	6	9	12	22	15
14	Suzhou Dongwu	18	4	5	9	14	23	14
15	Meizhou Hakka	18	6	2	10	19	34	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	18	2	5	11	19	35	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foshan Nanshi	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-1 D	0-2 L
Nantong Zhiyun	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ningbo Professional FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Nanjing City	1-3 L	2-1 W
Yanbian Longding	0-2 L	0-0 D
Shaanxi Union	0-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Foshan Nanshi

DDLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
01/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
17/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
13/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
05/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
27/06	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
14/06	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-5	3	7	L
30/05	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
23/05	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-0	1-1	3	3	D

Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC

DDLWLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
25/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
17/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	9	D
11/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
04/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-2	0	3	L
27/06	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
20/06	Shanghai Shenhua China FA Cup	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
13/06	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
30/05	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foshan Nanshi vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Foshan Nanshi win (35%). Probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 35%, draw 31%, Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Foshan Nanshi vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Foshan Nanshi 1.08 · Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC 1.08), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.