Football · China Division 1 · 16/08, 13:30

Prediction: Nanjing City vs Dingnan Ganlian FC

Team pages: Nanjing City · Dingnan Ganlian FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Nanjing City1.6

Dingnan Ganlian FC1.29

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Nanjing City Draw Dingnan Ganlian FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nanjing City 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLLDD

Dingnan Ganlian FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDLDLDLDLW

Head-to-head

Nanjing City 2–1–3 Dingnan Ganlian FC (6 last)

Dingnan Ganlian FC1-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City2-0Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC2-1Nanjing City
Dingnan Ganlian FC2-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City3-2Dingnan Ganlian FC
Dingnan Ganlian FC3-0Nanjing City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nanjing City 1474 · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1455

	Nanjing City	Draw	Dingnan Ganlian FC
Our model	44%	27%	30%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dingnan Ganlian FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nanjing City	Dingnan Ganlian FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.7 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	2.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.95▼	Pinn 1.96
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.84 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:28 +5’	2.10	3.20	3.10
18:40 +5’	1.95▼	3.25▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:32 +1’	1.93	3.32	3.86
09:40	1.95▲	3.28▼	3.84▼
18:31 +14’	1.96▲	3.25▼	3.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nanjing City 2–1–3 Dingnan Ganlian FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Nanjing City
19/10/25 China Division 1	Nanjing City	2-0 HT 1-0	Dingnan Ganlian FC
15/06/25 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Nanjing City
25/08/24 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Nanjing City
06/04/24 China Division 1	Nanjing City	3-2 HT 1-1	Dingnan Ganlian FC
29/07/23 China Division 1	Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Nanjing City

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	18	12	4	2	33	16	40
2	Shenzhen Juniors	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
3	Nantong Zhiyun	17	8	7	2	21	13	31
4	Guangxi Hengchen	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
5	Yanbian Longding	18	7	8	3	24	15	29
6	Shaanxi Union	18	7	5	6	27	17	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	18	4	9	5	28	35	21
10	Nanjing City	18	5	5	8	17	20	20
11	Changchun Yatai	18	7	2	9	27	34	19
12	Dalian K'un City	17	4	6	7	22	26	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	18	3	6	9	12	22	15
14	Suzhou Dongwu	18	4	5	9	14	23	14
15	Meizhou Hakka	18	6	2	10	19	34	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	18	2	5	11	19	35	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nanjing City	Dingnan Ganlian FC
Nantong Zhiyun	1-1 D	1-5 L
Yanbian Longding	1-1 D	0-3 L
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-1 L	1-3 L
Dalian K'un City	0-2 L	2-1 W
Foshan Nanshi	3-1 W	1-1 D
Ningbo Professional FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Wuxi Wugo	1-1 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nanjing City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nanjing City

DWLLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
01/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
18/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
11/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
05/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	3-0	3-1	10	2	W
27/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/05	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	1-1	8	4	D

Dingnan Ganlian FC

DDLDLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	5	1	W
01/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-3	1-5	5	0	L
26/07	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-2	4-4	0	4	D
18/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	0	D
04/07	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
28/06	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	2-2	3-3	10	7	D
13/06	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
30/05	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-2	7	3	D
23/05	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nanjing City vs Dingnan Ganlian FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nanjing City win (43%). Probabilities: Nanjing City 43%, draw 28%, Dingnan Ganlian FC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Nanjing City vs Dingnan Ganlian FC?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Nanjing City 1.6 · Dingnan Ganlian FC 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Dingnan Ganlian FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.