Football · China Division 1 · 30/08, 13:30

Prediction: Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Guangdong GZ-Power · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Guangdong GZ-Power2.29

Changchun Yatai1.07

1X2

64% 21% 16%

Guangdong GZ-Power Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Guangdong GZ-Power 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDWWW

Changchun Yatai 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLWDLLW

Head-to-head

Guangdong GZ-Power 1–0 Changchun Yatai (1 last)

Changchun Yatai1-2Guangdong GZ-Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangdong GZ-Power 1605 · Changchun Yatai 1478

	Guangdong GZ-Power	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	64%	21%	16%
Market	64%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangdong GZ-Power (rating 1605 vs 1478).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangdong GZ-Power	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.7	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	1.5 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.40▲	Pinn 1.43
X	4.50 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.52
2	7.00 → 5.75▼	Pinn 6.38 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:37 +13’	1.33	4.50	7.00
06:01 +3’	1.40▲	4.33▼	5.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:49	1.43	4.52	6.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong GZ-Power 1–0–0 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	1-2 HT 1-1	Guangdong GZ-Power

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	20	14	4	2	41	17	46
2	Shenzhen Juniors	20	10	6	4	31	22	36
3	Nantong Zhiyun	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
4	Yanbian Longding	20	9	8	3	30	18	35
5	Guangxi Hengchen	19	9	6	4	34	24	33
6	Shaanxi Union	19	7	5	7	28	21	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	19	8	4	7	25	25	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	18	6	5	7	29	23	23
9	Changchun Yatai	19	8	2	9	33	34	22
10	Dingnan Jiangxi United	20	4	10	6	30	38	22
11	Dalian K'un City	19	5	6	8	25	30	21
12	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	20	5	6	9	16	24	21
13	Nanjing City	20	5	6	9	19	24	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	20	4	7	9	17	26	16
15	Meizhou Hakka	20	6	2	12	20	40	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	20	2	5	13	20	43	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangdong GZ-Power	Changchun Yatai
Meizhou Hakka	5-1 W	3-1 W
Wuxi Wugo	3-0 W	1-5 L
Guangxi Hengchen	2-0 W	1-2 L
Foshan Nanshi	1-1 D	6-0 W
Nanjing City	1-0 W	2-1 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Suzhou Dongwu	2-2 D	1-2 L
Shaanxi Union	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Guangdong GZ-Power (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guangdong GZ-Power

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-0	5-1	3	2	W
15/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	3-0	3-0	2	1	W
09/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
01/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
18/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
11/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
27/06	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
13/06	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W

Changchun Yatai

DWLWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
30/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong GZ-Power win (64%). Probabilities: Guangdong GZ-Power 64%, draw 21%, Changchun Yatai 16%.

How many goals are expected in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Guangdong GZ-Power 2.29 · Changchun Yatai 1.07), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.