Football · China Division 1 · 29/08, 13:30

Prediction: Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen

Team pages: Nanjing City · Guangxi Hengchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Nanjing City1.25

Guangxi Hengchen1.56

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Nanjing City Draw Guangxi Hengchen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Nanjing City 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDDDL

Guangxi Hengchen 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Nanjing City 0–1 Guangxi Hengchen (1 last)

Guangxi Hengchen1-0Nanjing City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nanjing City 1436 · Guangxi Hengchen 1540

	Nanjing City	Draw	Guangxi Hengchen
Our model	29%	27%	43%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guangxi Hengchen (rating 1436 vs 1540).
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nanjing City	Guangxi Hengchen
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	5.3 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.41 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.23
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.11

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:08 +7’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +2’	3.41	3.23	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nanjing City 0–0–1 Guangxi Hengchen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 China Division 1	Guangxi Hengchen	1-0 HT 1-0	Nanjing City

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	20	14	4	2	41	17	46
2	Shenzhen Juniors	20	10	6	4	31	22	36
3	Nantong Zhiyun	19	9	8	2	25	14	35
4	Yanbian Longding	20	9	8	3	30	18	35
5	Guangxi Hengchen	19	9	6	4	34	24	33
6	Shaanxi Union	19	7	5	7	28	21	26
7	Ningbo Professional FC	19	8	4	7	25	25	25
8	Wuxi Wugo	18	6	5	7	29	23	23
9	Changchun Yatai	19	8	2	9	33	34	22
10	Dingnan Jiangxi United	20	4	10	6	30	38	22
11	Dalian K'un City	19	5	6	8	25	30	21
12	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	20	5	6	9	16	24	21
13	Nanjing City	20	5	6	9	19	24	21
14	Suzhou Dongwu	20	4	7	9	17	26	16
15	Meizhou Hakka	20	6	2	12	20	40	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	20	2	5	13	20	43	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nanjing City	Guangxi Hengchen
Shenzhen Juniors	1-3 L	1-1 D
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 D	4-4 D
Changchun Yatai	1-2 L	2-1 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-1 L	0-2 L
Dalian K'un City	0-2 L	3-1 W
Foshan Nanshi	3-1 W	3-3 D
Ningbo Professional FC	1-2 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nanjing City

LLWLLLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
08/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
01/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
18/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
11/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
05/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	3-0	3-1	10	2	W
27/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L

Guangxi Hengchen

DDWWWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-0	3-3	9	2	D
15/08	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	9	1	W
09/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W
05/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	0	W
27/06	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
14/06	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
30/05	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-1	3-3	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guangxi Hengchen win (43%). Probabilities: Nanjing City 29%, draw 28%, Guangxi Hengchen 43%.

How many goals are expected in Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Nanjing City 1.25 · Guangxi Hengchen 1.56), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.