Football · China Division 1 · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: Dalian K'un City vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Dalian K'un City · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Dalian K'un City1.44

Changchun Yatai1.21

1X2

42% 28% 31%

Dalian K'un City Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Dalian K'un City 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDDWLL

Changchun Yatai 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWWDLD

Head-to-head

Dalian K'un City 0–1–1 Changchun Yatai (2 last)

Changchun Yatai2-1Dalian K'un City
Dalian K'un City1-1Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dalian K'un City 1481 · Changchun Yatai 1501

	Dalian K'un City	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	41%	28%	30%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dalian K'un City	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.9	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.18
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.19 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
10:29 +14’	2.15	3.30	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:09 +94’	2.18	3.27	3.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dalian K'un City 0–1–1 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	2-1 HT 2-1	Dalian K'un City
21/05/25 China FA Cup	Dalian K'un City	1-1 HT 0-0	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	25	17	6	2	52	21	57
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Nantong Zhiyun	25	12	9	4	34	20	45
4	Shenzhen Juniors	25	12	8	5	40	29	44
5	Shaanxi Union	24	10	6	8	38	26	36
6	Yanbian Longding	25	9	9	7	34	28	36
7	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	25	9	7	9	23	25	34
8	Wuxi Wugo	25	9	6	10	38	31	33
9	Changchun Yatai	25	10	4	11	38	41	30
10	Ningbo Professional FC	25	9	5	11	27	31	29
11	Dalian K'un City	25	7	8	10	30	37	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	25	7	9	9	30	35	27
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	25	4	12	9	35	46	24
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	25	7	4	14	25	50	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dalian K'un City	Changchun Yatai
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Shaanxi Union	0-3 L	1-2 L
Ningbo Professional FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-1 D	0-3 L
Foshan Nanshi	0-0 D	6-0 W
Nantong Zhiyun	3-2 W	0-2 L
Yanbian Longding	1-3 L	1-1 D
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dalian K'un City

DLLWWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/09	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
18/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
30/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	2-0	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
15/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
08/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	1-2	11	1	L
01/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	5	D

Changchun Yatai

DLLWLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W
14/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dalian K'un City vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dalian K'un City win (42%). Probabilities: Dalian K'un City 42%, draw 28%, Changchun Yatai 31%.

How many goals are expected in Dalian K'un City vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Dalian K'un City 1.44 · Changchun Yatai 1.21), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dalian K'un City vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.