Football · China Division 1 · 07/10, 13:30

Prediction: Nanjing City vs Shaanxi Union

Team pages: Nanjing City · Shaanxi Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Nanjing City1.11

Shaanxi Union1.5

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Nanjing City Draw Shaanxi Union

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Nanjing City 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLLLLL

Shaanxi Union 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWWLDW

Head-to-head

Nanjing City 1–2–0 Shaanxi Union (3 last)

Shaanxi Union0-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City3-3Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union1-1Nanjing City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nanjing City 1422 · Shaanxi Union 1512

	Nanjing City	Draw	Shaanxi Union
Our model	27%	28%	45%
Market	27%	27%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shaanxi Union (rating 1422 vs 1512).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nanjing City	Shaanxi Union
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.30

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
10:57 +10’	3.25	3.30	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nanjing City 1–2–0 Shaanxi Union

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 China Division 1	Shaanxi Union	0-1 HT 0-1	Nanjing City
09/08/25 China Division 1	Nanjing City	3-3 HT 3-3	Shaanxi Union
22/04/25 China Division 1	Shaanxi Union	1-1 HT 1-1	Nanjing City

Standings · China Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	24	16	6	2	48	20	54
2	Guangxi Hengchen	24	13	6	5	40	26	45
3	Shenzhen Juniors	24	12	8	4	39	25	44
4	Nantong Zhiyun	24	11	9	4	33	20	42
5	Shaanxi Union	24	10	6	8	38	26	36
6	Yanbian Longding	24	9	8	7	33	27	35
7	Wuxi Wugo	24	9	5	10	36	29	32
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	24	8	7	9	22	25	31
9	Changchun Yatai	24	10	3	11	37	40	29
10	Ningbo Professional FC	24	9	5	10	27	30	29
11	Dalian K'un City	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
12	Suzhou Dongwu	24	7	8	9	28	33	26
13	Dingnan Ganlian FC	24	4	11	9	35	46	23
14	Nanjing City	24	5	6	13	20	33	21
15	Meizhou Hakka	24	7	3	14	25	50	15
16	Foshan Nanshi	24	2	7	15	24	49	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nanjing City	Shaanxi Union
Suzhou Dongwu	0-2 L	2-2 D
Shenzhen Juniors	1-3 L	3-0 W
Dingnan Ganlian FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Nantong Zhiyun	1-1 D	1-4 L
Yanbian Longding	1-1 D	3-1 W
Changchun Yatai	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shaanxi Union (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nanjing City

LLDDDLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
13/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
06/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
08/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
01/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
18/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L

Shaanxi Union

WDLWLWWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
19/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	2-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
05/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
29/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	1-3	1-4	2	5	L
14/08	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
08/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
01/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-2	2-2	7	5	D
25/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	2-0	3-0	10	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nanjing City vs Shaanxi Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shaanxi Union win (45%). Probabilities: Nanjing City 27%, draw 28%, Shaanxi Union 45%.

How many goals are expected in Nanjing City vs Shaanxi Union?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Nanjing City 1.11 · Shaanxi Union 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Shaanxi Union?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.