Football · China Division 1 · 31/10, 07:30

Prediction: Nanjing City vs Dalian K'un City

Team pages: Nanjing City · Dalian K'un City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Nanjing City1.62

Dalian K'un City0.99

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Nanjing City Draw Dalian K'un City

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Nanjing City 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLDWW

Dalian K'un City 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Nanjing City 0–3 Dalian K'un City (3 last)

Dalian K'un City2-0Nanjing City
Dalian K'un City3-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City1-2Dalian K'un City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nanjing City 1445 · Dalian K'un City 1521

	Nanjing City	Draw	Dalian K'un City
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	51%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dalian K'un City (rating 1445 vs 1521).
H2H favours Dalian K'un City: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nanjing City	Dalian K'un City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 1.75▼	Pinn 2.02 ★
X	3.20 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:10 +58’	2.20	3.20	2.90
08:04 +3’	1.75▼	3.40▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:05 +2’	2.04	3.26	3.30
08:12 +55’	2.02▼	3.27▲	3.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nanjing City 0–0–3 Dalian K'un City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	2-0 HT 0-0	Nanjing City
13/07/25 China Division 1	Dalian K'un City	3-1 HT 1-1	Nanjing City
16/03/25 China Division 1	Nanjing City	1-2 HT 0-0	Dalian K'un City

Standings · China Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	28	18	7	3	56	27	61
2	Nantong Zhiyun	28	15	9	4	37	20	54
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	13	8	7	45	33	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	28	12	10	6	42	32	46
5	Shaanxi Union	28	13	6	9	51	30	45
6	Yanbian Longding	28	11	9	8	41	30	42
7	Wuxi Wugo	28	11	6	11	43	33	39
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	28	10	8	10	26	28	38
9	Changchun Yatai	28	11	6	11	45	45	35
10	Dalian K'un City	28	8	10	10	35	41	34
11	Ningbo Professional FC	28	9	7	12	30	35	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	28	7	12	9	32	37	30
13	Nanjing City	28	7	7	14	27	39	28
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	28	5	12	11	39	51	27
15	Meizhou Hakka	28	7	4	17	26	58	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	28	3	7	18	28	64	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nanjing City	Dalian K'un City
Foshan Nanshi	5-2 W	0-0 D
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Ningbo Professional FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Shaanxi Union	1-4 L	0-3 L
Wuxi Wugo	0-3 L	2-1 W
Guangxi Hengchen	0-2 L	3-2 W
Shenzhen Juniors	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dalian K'un City (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nanjing City

DLLLLLLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	5-2	6	1	W
18/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
11/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
07/10	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-1	1-4	1	3	L
19/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
13/09	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
06/09	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
29/08	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
16/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-1	1-1	9	4	D

Dalian K'un City

WWDDWLLDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	2-0	3-2	0	4	W
17/10	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/10	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
06/10	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/09	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	2	L
18/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
30/08	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	2-0	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nanjing City vs Dalian K'un City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nanjing City win (51%). Probabilities: Nanjing City 51%, draw 27%, Dalian K'un City 22%.

How many goals are expected in Nanjing City vs Dalian K'un City?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Nanjing City 1.62 · Dalian K'un City 0.99), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Dalian K'un City?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.