Prediction: Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai
Expected goals: 2.98 (Meizhou Hakka 1.57 · Changchun Yatai 1.41). The model gives 40% home, 28% draw, 33% away. Over 2.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Meizhou Hakka with 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; Changchun Yatai has piled up 4-2-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Meizhou Hakka and 2 for Changchun Yatai.
| Meizhou Hakka | Draw | Changchun Yatai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Meizhou Hakka: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Meizhou Hakka | Changchun Yatai | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.5 | 3.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Meizhou Hakka 4–0–2 Changchun Yatai
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 China Super League | Changchun Yatai | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Meizhou Hakka |
| 11/04/25 China Super League | Meizhou Hakka | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Changchun Yatai |
| 17/08/24 China Super League | Meizhou Hakka | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Changchun Yatai |
| 26/04/24 China Super League | Changchun Yatai | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Meizhou Hakka |
| 08/08/23 China Super League | Meizhou Hakka | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Changchun Yatai |
| 10/05/23 China Super League | Changchun Yatai | 2-4 HT 2-1 | Meizhou Hakka |
Standings · China Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangdong GZ-Power | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 12 | 26 |
| 2 | Shenzhen Juniors | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Nantong Zhiyun | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | Guangxi Hengchen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | Yanbian Longding | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Wuxi Wugo | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 17 |
| 7 | Dingnan Ganlian FC | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| 8 | Ningbo Professional FC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| 9 | Nanjing City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | Shaanxi Union | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 13 |
| 11 | Dalian K'un City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 13 |
| 12 | Changchun Yatai | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 12 |
| 13 | Meizhou Hakka | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 11 |
| 14 | Foshan Nanshi | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 23 | 10 |
| 15 | Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 9 |
| 16 | Suzhou Dongwu | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Meizhou Hakka | Changchun Yatai |
|---|---|---|
| Dingnan Jiangxi United | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Shenzhen Juniors | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Ningbo Professional FC | 0-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Guangdong GZ-Power | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Guangxi Hengchen | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Meizhou Hakka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Wuxi Wugo China Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 30/05 | Dingnan Jiangxi United China Division 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China FA Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Nanjing City China Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 19/04 | Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
Changchun Yatai
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Dalian K'un City China Division 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Yanbian Longding China Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China FA Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Dingnan Jiangxi United China Division 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1 |
1-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Foshan Nanshi China Division 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Shaanxi Union China Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Meizhou Hakka win (40%). Probabilities: Meizhou Hakka 40%, draw 28%, Changchun Yatai 33%.
How many goals are expected in Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Meizhou Hakka 1.57 · Changchun Yatai 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Hakka vs Changchun Yatai?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.