Football · China Division 1 · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Changchun Yatai1.71

Nanjing City1.13

1X2

50% 26% 24%

Changchun Yatai Draw Nanjing City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Nanjing City 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 1–1 Nanjing City (2 last)

Nanjing City2-1Changchun Yatai
Nanjing City3-4Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1466 · Nanjing City 1487

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Nanjing City
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Nanjing City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 2.03 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:58 +11’	1.80	3.40	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:09	2.03	3.31	3.54

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 1–0–1 Nanjing City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 China Division 1	Nanjing City	2-1 HT 1-1	Changchun Yatai
22/06/23 China FA Cup	Nanjing City	3-4 HT 0-1	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	15	10	3	2	28	14	33
2	Shenzhen Juniors	15	7	5	3	26	18	26
3	Nantong Zhiyun	14	7	5	2	14	10	26
4	Guangxi Hengchen	14	7	4	3	22	13	25
5	Yanbian Longding	15	6	7	2	21	12	25
6	Ningbo Professional FC	15	8	3	4	20	16	24
7	Wuxi Wugo	14	5	5	4	26	17	20
8	Shaanxi Union	14	5	4	5	19	12	19
9	Nanjing City	15	5	3	7	14	16	18
10	Dingnan Ganlian FC	15	3	8	4	21	25	17
11	Dalian K'un City	14	4	4	6	19	22	16
12	Changchun Yatai	14	6	1	7	21	27	15
13	Foshan Nanshi	15	2	4	9	16	29	10
14	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	15	2	4	9	7	18	10
15	Meizhou Hakka	15	5	2	8	15	29	8
16	Suzhou Dongwu	15	2	4	9	11	22	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Nanjing City
Wuxi Wugo	1-5 L	1-1 D
Meizhou Hakka	3-1 W	2-0 W
Dalian K'un City	2-1 W	0-2 L
Ningbo Professional FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Guangdong GZ-Power	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nanjing City (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Changchun Yatai

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
30/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
16/05	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China FA Cup	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
09/05	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-1	3-2	6	4	W
03/05	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-3	1-3	2	0	L
26/04	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-2	6	4	L

Nanjing City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
11/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
05/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	3-0	3-1	10	2	W
27/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/05	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
15/05	Qingdao Red Lions China FA Cup	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
09/05	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/05	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	1-0	1-0	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Changchun Yatai win (50%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 50%, draw 26%, Nanjing City 24%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Changchun Yatai 1.71 · Nanjing City 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Nanjing City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.