Football · China Division 1 · 09/08, 13:30

Prediction: Guangdong GZ-Power vs Guangxi Hengchen

Team pages: Guangdong GZ-Power · Guangxi Hengchen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Guangdong GZ-Power1.75

Guangxi Hengchen1.26

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Guangdong GZ-Power Draw Guangxi Hengchen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guangdong GZ-Power 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDWWWD

Guangxi Hengchen 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWWDW

Head-to-head

Guangdong GZ-Power 1–2 Guangxi Hengchen (3 last)

Guangxi Hengchen1-0Guangdong GZ-Power
Guangdong GZ-Power0-1Guangxi Hengchen
Guangxi Hengchen1-2Guangdong GZ-Power

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guangdong GZ-Power 1527 · Guangxi Hengchen 1559

	Guangdong GZ-Power	Draw	Guangxi Hengchen
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guangxi Hengchen: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guangdong GZ-Power	Guangxi Hengchen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	4.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.93
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.41
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.77 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +10’	1.91	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +1’	1.93	3.41	3.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Guangdong GZ-Power 1–0–2 Guangxi Hengchen

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 China Division 1	Guangxi Hengchen	1-0 HT 0-0	Guangdong GZ-Power
16/06/24 China Division 2	Guangdong GZ-Power	0-1 HT 0-0	Guangxi Hengchen
06/04/24 China Division 2	Guangxi Hengchen	1-2 HT 1-0	Guangdong GZ-Power

Standings · China Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	17	11	4	2	31	16	37
2	Nantong Zhiyun	16	8	6	2	20	12	30
3	Shenzhen Juniors	17	8	5	4	27	21	29
4	Guangxi Hengchen	16	8	5	3	30	19	29
5	Yanbian Longding	17	7	8	2	24	14	29
6	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
7	Shaanxi Union	16	6	5	5	24	14	23
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Nanjing City	17	5	4	8	16	19	19
10	Changchun Yatai	16	7	2	7	25	30	19
11	Dalian K'un City	16	4	6	6	21	24	18
12	Dingnan Ganlian FC	17	3	9	5	26	34	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	17	2	6	9	10	21	12
14	Suzhou Dongwu	17	3	5	9	12	22	11
15	Foshan Nanshi	17	2	5	10	17	32	11
16	Meizhou Hakka	17	5	2	10	16	32	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guangdong GZ-Power	Guangxi Hengchen
Foshan Nanshi	1-1 D	3-3 D
Ningbo Professional FC	2-1 W	4-2 W
Shaanxi Union	2-1 W	3-0 W
Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-1 W	4-4 D
Shenzhen Juniors	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Guangxi Hengchen (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guangdong GZ-Power

LDWLWDWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
25/07	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
18/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
11/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
27/06	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-1	2-1	12	2	W
19/06	Beijing Guoan China FA Cup	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
13/06	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
29/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
24/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-2	3-4	11	5	L

Guangxi Hengchen

WDDDLWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	4-2	2	5	W
26/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	2-1	4-4	8	4	D
18/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-0	3-0	13	3	W
05/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-1	3-1	7	0	W
27/06	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-0	2-1	6	3	W
20/06	Shandong Taishan China FA Cup	0-2	0-5	6	0	L
14/06	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
30/05	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
23/05	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
17/05	Hubei Istar China FA Cup	2-0	4-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Guangxi Hengchen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guangdong GZ-Power win (47%). Probabilities: Guangdong GZ-Power 47%, draw 27%, Guangxi Hengchen 26%.

How many goals are expected in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Guangdong GZ-Power 1.75 · Guangxi Hengchen 1.26), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guangdong GZ-Power vs Guangxi Hengchen?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.