Football · China Division 1 · 09/08, 12:00

Prediction: Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors

Team pages: Yanbian Longding · Shenzhen Juniors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Yanbian Longding1.38

Shenzhen Juniors1.24

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Yanbian Longding Draw Shenzhen Juniors

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Yanbian Longding 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWWDWD

Shenzhen Juniors 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Yanbian Longding 1–2 Shenzhen Juniors (3 last)

Shenzhen Juniors1-0Yanbian Longding
Shenzhen Juniors2-1Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding1-0Shenzhen Juniors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Yanbian Longding 1519 · Shenzhen Juniors 1503

	Yanbian Longding	Draw	Shenzhen Juniors
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shenzhen Juniors: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Yanbian Longding	Shenzhen Juniors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.64 ★
X	3.25 → 3.20▼	Bet365 3.20
2	3.30 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +7’	2.00	3.25	3.30
17:47 +4’	2.30▲	3.20▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:51	2.46	3.01	2.94
22:27 +1’	2.56▲	3.00▼	2.82▼
09:34 +3’	2.57▲	2.98▼	2.83▲
13:52 +7’	2.64▲	2.98	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Yanbian Longding 1–0–2 Shenzhen Juniors

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	1-0 HT 0-0	Yanbian Longding
17/08/25 China Division 1	Shenzhen Juniors	2-1 HT 1-1	Yanbian Longding
26/04/25 China Division 1	Yanbian Longding	1-0 HT 0-0	Shenzhen Juniors

Standings · China Division 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	17	11	4	2	31	16	37
2	Nantong Zhiyun	16	8	6	2	20	12	30
3	Shenzhen Juniors	17	8	5	4	27	21	29
4	Guangxi Hengchen	16	8	5	3	30	19	29
5	Yanbian Longding	17	7	8	2	24	14	29
6	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
7	Shaanxi Union	16	6	5	5	24	14	23
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Nanjing City	17	5	4	8	16	19	19
10	Changchun Yatai	16	7	2	7	25	30	19
11	Dalian K'un City	16	4	6	6	21	24	18
12	Dingnan Ganlian FC	17	3	9	5	26	34	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	17	2	6	9	10	21	12
14	Suzhou Dongwu	17	3	5	9	12	22	11
15	Foshan Nanshi	17	2	5	10	17	32	11
16	Meizhou Hakka	17	5	2	10	16	32	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Yanbian Longding	Shenzhen Juniors
Suzhou Dongwu	3-1 W	0-0 D
Dingnan Ganlian FC	3-0 W	3-3 D
Nantong Zhiyun	0-2 L	0-0 D
Changchun Yatai	2-2 D	4-0 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	4-3 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Yanbian Longding (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Yanbian Longding

LWDLWWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Nanjing City China Division 1	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
11/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
04/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
27/06	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
14/06	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
30/05	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
24/05	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	2-0	4-3	1	5	W
16/05	Shanghai Segenda China FA Cup	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Shenzhen Juniors

WDDLLDDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
25/07	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
17/07	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/07	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-2	3-3	9	0	D
04/07	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
27/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	3-3	4-5	6	3	L
19/06	Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China FA Cup	0-3	1-3	2	5	L
14/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
29/05	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
24/05	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	3-0	4-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Yanbian Longding win (39%). Probabilities: Yanbian Longding 39%, draw 28%, Shenzhen Juniors 33%.

How many goals are expected in Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Yanbian Longding 1.38 · Shenzhen Juniors 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen Juniors?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.