Football · China Division 1 · 08/08, 13:30

Prediction: Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun

Team pages: Nanjing City · Nantong Zhiyun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.14Total

Nanjing City0.99

Nantong Zhiyun1.15

1X2

31% 31% 38%

Nanjing City Draw Nantong Zhiyun

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nanjing City 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWLLLD

Nantong Zhiyun 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLDWDW

Head-to-head

Nanjing City 2–2–2 Nantong Zhiyun (6 last)

Nantong Zhiyun1-0Nanjing City
Nantong Zhiyun0-1Nanjing City
Nanjing City0-0Nantong Zhiyun
Nanjing City2-1Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun0-0Nanjing City
Nantong Zhiyun3-1Nanjing City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nanjing City 1449 · Nantong Zhiyun 1530

	Nanjing City	Draw	Nantong Zhiyun
Our model	30%	32%	38%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Zhiyun (rating 1449 vs 1530).
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nanjing City	Nantong Zhiyun
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.8	3.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.12 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.03
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.34

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:35 +6’	2.88	3.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:04	3.17	2.97	2.35
17:34 +1’	3.12▼	3.03▲	2.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nanjing City 2–2–2 Nantong Zhiyun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	1-0 HT 0-0	Nanjing City
27/07/25 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	0-1 HT 0-1	Nanjing City
06/04/25 China Division 1	Nanjing City	0-0 HT 0-0	Nantong Zhiyun
25/11/22 China Division 1	Nanjing City	2-1 HT 0-1	Nantong Zhiyun
31/10/22 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	0-0 HT 0-0	Nanjing City
21/05/21 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	3-1 HT 0-0	Nanjing City

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	17	11	4	2	31	16	37
2	Nantong Zhiyun	16	8	6	2	20	12	30
3	Shenzhen Juniors	17	8	5	4	27	21	29
4	Guangxi Hengchen	16	8	5	3	30	19	29
5	Yanbian Longding	17	7	8	2	24	14	29
6	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
7	Shaanxi Union	16	6	5	5	24	14	23
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Nanjing City	17	5	4	8	16	19	19
10	Changchun Yatai	16	7	2	7	25	30	19
11	Dalian K'un City	16	4	6	6	21	24	18
12	Dingnan Ganlian FC	17	3	9	5	26	34	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	17	2	6	9	10	21	12
14	Suzhou Dongwu	17	3	5	9	12	22	11
15	Foshan Nanshi	17	2	5	10	17	32	11
16	Meizhou Hakka	17	5	2	10	16	32	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nanjing City	Nantong Zhiyun
Yanbian Longding	1-1 D	2-0 W
Foshan Nanshi	3-1 W	2-1 W
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ningbo Professional FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Wuxi Wugo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nantong Zhiyun (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nanjing City

LDWLLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/07	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
18/07	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
11/07	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
05/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	3-0	3-1	10	2	W
27/06	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
13/06	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
29/05	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
15/05	Qingdao Red Lions China FA Cup	0-0	0-1	10	4	L

Nantong Zhiyun

WLDDWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	3-0	5-1	9	0	W
25/07	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
17/07	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	1-1	2-1	10	2	W
04/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
27/06	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	0-1	1-3	11	4	L
14/06	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
29/05	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
23/05	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
15/05	Dalian Kewei China FA Cup	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/05	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nantong Zhiyun win (38%). Probabilities: Nanjing City 31%, draw 31%, Nantong Zhiyun 38%.

How many goals are expected in Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun?

The model expects 2.14 goals (Nanjing City 0.99 · Nantong Zhiyun 1.15), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nanjing City vs Nantong Zhiyun?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.