Football · China Division 1 · 14/08, 13:30

Prediction: Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai

Team pages: Shaanxi Union · Changchun Yatai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Shaanxi Union2.25

Changchun Yatai1.08

1X2

63% 21% 16%

Shaanxi Union Draw Changchun Yatai

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shaanxi Union 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLLWDL

Changchun Yatai 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWLWDL

Head-to-head

Shaanxi Union 0–1–1 Changchun Yatai (2 last)

Changchun Yatai2-1Shaanxi Union
Shaanxi Union2-2Changchun Yatai

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shaanxi Union 1498 · Changchun Yatai 1481

	Shaanxi Union	Draw	Changchun Yatai
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shaanxi Union	Changchun Yatai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.42▲	Pinn 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.69 ★
2	6.25 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.86

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +3’	1.36	4.33	6.25
02:56 +3’	1.42▲	4.20▼	5.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:59	1.42	4.81	6.08
04:34 +1’	1.44▲	4.69▼	5.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shaanxi Union 0–1–1 Changchun Yatai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	2-1 HT 1-1	Shaanxi Union
21/06/24 China FA Cup	Shaanxi Union	2-2 HT 0-1	Changchun Yatai

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	18	12	4	2	33	16	40
2	Shenzhen Juniors	18	9	5	4	28	21	32
3	Nantong Zhiyun	17	8	7	2	21	13	31
4	Guangxi Hengchen	17	8	5	4	30	21	29
5	Yanbian Longding	18	7	8	3	24	15	29
6	Ningbo Professional FC	17	8	3	6	23	22	24
7	Shaanxi Union	17	6	5	6	25	16	23
8	Wuxi Wugo	16	6	5	5	28	18	23
9	Dingnan Ganlian FC	18	4	9	5	28	35	21
10	Nanjing City	18	5	5	8	17	20	20
11	Changchun Yatai	17	7	2	8	26	32	19
12	Dalian K'un City	17	4	6	7	22	26	18
13	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	18	3	6	9	12	22	15
14	Suzhou Dongwu	18	4	5	9	14	23	14
15	Meizhou Hakka	18	6	2	10	19	34	11
16	Foshan Nanshi	18	2	5	11	19	35	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shaanxi Union	Changchun Yatai
Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	1-2 L	2-2 D
Dalian K'un City	2-2 D	2-1 W
Shenzhen Juniors	3-0 W	0-4 L
Guangxi Hengchen	0-3 L	1-2 L
Meizhou Hakka	4-0 W	3-1 W
Wuxi Wugo	2-1 W	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Shaanxi Union

WDLWWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	1-2	2	6	L
01/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
25/07	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	2-0	3-0	10	4	W
22/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China FA Cup	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
18/07	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
11/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	4-0	5	1	W
04/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/06	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	1-1	1-2	0	2	L
19/06	Zhejiang China FA Cup	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
14/06	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	2-0	5-0	3	7	W

Changchun Yatai

DLDWLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Suzhou Dongwu China Division 1	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
02/08	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC China Division 1	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Nanjing City China Division 1	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/07	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	0-2	1-5	6	1	L
05/07	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
27/06	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	2-1	2-1	2	0	W
30/05	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
16/05	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China FA Cup	1-0	1-1	10	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shaanxi Union win (63%). Probabilities: Shaanxi Union 63%, draw 21%, Changchun Yatai 16%.

How many goals are expected in Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Shaanxi Union 2.25 · Changchun Yatai 1.08), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Shaanxi Union vs Changchun Yatai?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.