Football · China Division 1 · 31/10, 07:30

Prediction: Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun

Team pages: Changchun Yatai · Nantong Zhiyun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Changchun Yatai1.14

Nantong Zhiyun1.39

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Changchun Yatai Draw Nantong Zhiyun

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Changchun Yatai 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLDDDW

Nantong Zhiyun 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Changchun Yatai 4–1–1 Nantong Zhiyun (6 last)

Nantong Zhiyun2-0Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai3-2Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun2-3Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai1-1Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun0-1Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai4-0Nantong Zhiyun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Changchun Yatai 1523 · Nantong Zhiyun 1563

	Changchun Yatai	Draw	Nantong Zhiyun
Our model	30%	29%	41%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nantong Zhiyun (rating 1523 vs 1563).
H2H favours Changchun Yatai: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Changchun Yatai	Nantong Zhiyun
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.2	3.7 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.41
2	2.00 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.41 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:57 +10’	3.10	3.40	2.00
09:00 +7’	2.90▼	3.40	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:22 +45’	2.57	3.41	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Changchun Yatai 4–1–1 Nantong Zhiyun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/26 China Division 1	Nantong Zhiyun	2-0 HT 1-0	Changchun Yatai
14/09/24 China Super League	Changchun Yatai	3-2 HT 1-2	Nantong Zhiyun
05/05/24 China Super League	Nantong Zhiyun	2-3 HT 1-1	Changchun Yatai
04/08/23 China Super League	Changchun Yatai	1-1 HT 1-0	Nantong Zhiyun
06/05/23 China Super League	Nantong Zhiyun	0-1 HT 0-1	Changchun Yatai
08/10/20 China Division 1	Changchun Yatai	4-0 HT 1-0	Nantong Zhiyun

Standings · China Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guangdong GZ-Power	28	18	7	3	56	27	61
2	Nantong Zhiyun	28	15	9	4	37	20	54
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	13	8	7	45	33	47
4	Shenzhen Juniors	28	12	10	6	42	32	46
5	Shaanxi Union	28	13	6	9	51	30	45
6	Yanbian Longding	28	11	9	8	41	30	42
7	Wuxi Wugo	28	11	6	11	43	33	39
8	Shijiazhuang Gongfu FC	28	10	8	10	26	28	38
9	Changchun Yatai	28	11	6	11	45	45	35
10	Dalian K'un City	28	8	10	10	35	41	34
11	Ningbo Professional FC	28	9	7	12	30	35	31
12	Suzhou Dongwu	28	7	12	9	32	37	30
13	Nanjing City	28	7	7	14	27	39	28
14	Dingnan Ganlian FC	28	5	12	11	39	51	27
15	Meizhou Hakka	28	7	4	17	26	58	16
16	Foshan Nanshi	28	3	7	18	28	64	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Changchun Yatai	Nantong Zhiyun
Meizhou Hakka	4-1 W	1-0 W
Guangxi Hengchen	2-2 D	0-1 L
Dalian K'un City	1-1 D	2-3 L
Yanbian Longding	1-1 D	1-0 W
Shenzhen Juniors	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ningbo Professional FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Guangdong GZ-Power	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Changchun Yatai (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Changchun Yatai

WLWWDLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	2-0	4-1	3	3	W
17/10	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
10/10	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
06/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/09	Nantong Zhiyun China Division 1	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
19/09	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Dingnan Ganlian FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
05/09	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
30/08	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
23/08	Foshan Nanshi China Division 1	5-0	6-0	2	0	W

Nantong Zhiyun

WLDWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Shenzhen Juniors China Division 1	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
18/10	Meizhou Hakka China Division 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
11/10	Yanbian Longding China Division 1	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
06/10	Ningbo Professional FC China Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
26/09	Changchun Yatai China Division 1	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
18/09	Guangxi Hengchen China Division 1	0-0	0-1	14	4	L
13/09	Wuxi Wugo China Division 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/09	Guangdong GZ-Power China Division 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/08	Dalian K'un City China Division 1	0-2	2-3	9	5	L
22/08	Shaanxi Union China Division 1	3-1	4-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nantong Zhiyun win (42%). Probabilities: Changchun Yatai 30%, draw 28%, Nantong Zhiyun 42%.

How many goals are expected in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Changchun Yatai 1.14 · Nantong Zhiyun 1.39), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.