Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 13/10, 17:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Parnu JK Vaprus1.36

JK Nomme Kalju2.06

1X2

24% 23% 53%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWLLLD

JK Nomme Kalju 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 3–1–2 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju3-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus3-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Nomme Kalju1-0Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Nomme Kalju1-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-2JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1472 · JK Nomme Kalju 1494

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	24%	23%	53%
Market	24%	23%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	3.1 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.79
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Pinn 3.94
2	1.53 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.78 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:59 +5’	4.50	4.10	1.53
12:56 +9’	3.90▼	3.90▼	1.67▲
14:01 +5’	3.70▼	3.90	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +40’	3.79	3.94	1.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 3–1–2 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	3-1 HT 2-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
30/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	3-1 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju
26/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 0-2	Parnu JK Vaprus
05/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-0 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
10/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-2 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
27/06/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 HT 1-2	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82	21	75
2	FC Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59	41	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	30	15	6	9	48	37	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	30	15	5	10	52	28	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	30	15	2	13	41	47	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	30	12	2	16	41	47	38
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	30	10	5	15	41	59	35
8	FC Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33	49	32
9	JK Nomme United	30	9	1	20	47	72	28
10	JK Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24	67	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	JK Nomme Kalju
JK Trans Narva	2-2 D	2-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	1-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4 L	2-3 L
Harju JK Laagri	3-2 W	0-1 L
JK Nomme United	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus

DLLDWWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L
16/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	5	L
02/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	0	5	D

JK Nomme Kalju

WWWLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
20/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
12/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
08/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
08/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
02/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	5-0	5-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is an JK Nomme Kalju win (53%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 24%, draw 23%, JK Nomme Kalju 53%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.36 · JK Nomme Kalju 2.06), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.