Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 14/10, 18:00

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: Paide Linnameeskond · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Paide Linnameeskond1.98

JK Tammeka Tartu1.22

1X2

54% 23% 22%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWLWWL

JK Tammeka Tartu 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 5–1 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

JK Tammeka Tartu0-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond0-1JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-4Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond3-0JK Tammeka Tartu
Paide Linnameeskond5-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu0-1Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paide Linnameeskond 1546 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1524

	Paide Linnameeskond	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +19’	1.65	3.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 5–0–1 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-2 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond
01/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	0-1 HT 0-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
12/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-4 HT 0-3	Paide Linnameeskond
29/10/25 Estonia Cup	Paide Linnameeskond	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
18/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	5-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
23/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	0-1 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82	21	75
2	FC Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59	41	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	30	15	6	9	48	37	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	30	15	5	10	52	28	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	30	15	2	13	41	47	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	30	12	2	16	41	47	38
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	30	10	5	15	41	59	35
8	FC Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33	49	32
9	JK Nomme United	30	9	1	20	47	72	28
10	JK Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24	67	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-1 L	0-6 L
JK Nomme United	3-1 W	4-0 W
Harju JK Laagri	1-2 L	2-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	2-3 L
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	2-0 W
FC Kuressaare	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tammeka Tartu (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paide Linnameeskond

WDWWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
19/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
16/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W
16/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W

JK Tammeka Tartu

WWWLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
20/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
17/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
26/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	9	W
22/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paide Linnameeskond win (54%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 54%, draw 23%, JK Tammeka Tartu 22%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 1.98 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.