Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 14/10, 17:00

Prediction: JK Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare

Team pages: JK Trans Narva · FC Kuressaare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

JK Trans Narva1.63

FC Kuressaare1.32

1X2

44% 26% 30%

JK Trans Narva Draw FC Kuressaare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Trans Narva 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDLDD

FC Kuressaare 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLLDW

Head-to-head

JK Trans Narva 1–3–2 FC Kuressaare (6 last)

FC Kuressaare3-1JK Trans Narva
FC Kuressaare0-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva1-2FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare2-2JK Trans Narva
FC Kuressaare0-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva3-2FC Kuressaare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Trans Narva 1467 · FC Kuressaare 1538

	JK Trans Narva	Draw	FC Kuressaare
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kuressaare (rating 1467 vs 1538).
H2H favours FC Kuressaare: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Trans Narva	FC Kuressaare
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +3’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Trans Narva 1–3–2 FC Kuressaare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	3-1 HT 2-0	JK Trans Narva
16/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
18/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Kuressaare
21/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Kuressaare	2-2 HT 2-1	JK Trans Narva
20/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
05/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	3-2 HT 2-2	FC Kuressaare

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82	21	75
2	FC Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59	41	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	30	15	6	9	48	37	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	30	15	5	10	52	28	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	30	15	2	13	41	47	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	30	12	2	16	41	47	38
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	30	10	5	15	41	59	35
8	FC Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33	49	32
9	JK Nomme United	30	9	1	20	47	72	28
10	JK Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24	67	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Trans Narva	FC Kuressaare
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Levadia Tallinn	1-1 D	0-4 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-2 D	2-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	0-2 L	1-3 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Trans Narva

WLDLLLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
20/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
08/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
31/07	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W

FC Kuressaare

LWWLDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
13/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
09/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
07/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-2	7	5	W
02/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Trans Narva win (44%). Probabilities: JK Trans Narva 44%, draw 26%, FC Kuressaare 30%.

How many goals are expected in JK Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

The model expects 2.95 goals (JK Trans Narva 1.63 · FC Kuressaare 1.32), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.