Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 15/10, 18:00

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn · FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

FC Flora Tallinn1.24

FC Levadia Tallinn2.14

1X2

21% 21% 58%

FC Flora Tallinn Draw FC Levadia Tallinn

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDWWL

FC Levadia Tallinn 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn 2–1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn1-2FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-3FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn4-0FC Flora Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-0FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn1-1FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Flora Tallinn2-3FC Levadia Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn 1516 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1643

	FC Flora Tallinn	Draw	FC Levadia Tallinn
Our model	21%	22%	57%
Market	21%	21%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1516 vs 1643).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn	FC Levadia Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	3.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	3.4 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.33

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +18’	4.20	4.33	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn 2–1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn
13/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
19/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-0 HT 2-0	FC Flora Tallinn
14/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Flora Tallinn	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn
29/10/25 Estonia Cup	FC Flora Tallinn	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
24/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 HT 2-0	FC Levadia Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	23	6	1	82	21	75
2	FC Flora Tallinn	30	18	1	11	59	41	55
3	Paide Linnameeskond	30	15	6	9	48	37	51
4	JK Nomme Kalju	30	15	5	10	52	28	50
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	30	15	2	13	41	47	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	30	12	2	16	41	47	38
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	30	10	5	15	41	59	35
8	FC Kuressaare	30	9	5	16	33	49	32
9	JK Nomme United	30	9	1	20	47	72	28
10	JK Trans Narva	30	5	5	20	24	67	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn	FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Kuressaare	0-2 L	4-0 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	3-2 W	4-0 W
JK Nomme United	3-2 W	5-0 W
JK Trans Narva	2-2 D	1-1 D
JK Nomme Kalju	2-1 W	3-2 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	3-2 W	6-0 W
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn

LWLLWWDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	3	6	L
20/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	3-2	7	0	W
12/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	3-2	9	1	W
08/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	4	6	D
05/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
02/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
30/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
26/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-3	8	9	L
23/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
16/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-3	2-3	13	7	L

FC Levadia Tallinn

WWWWWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
20/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	11	4	D
17/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	6-0	9	4	W
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
16/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
09/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	5-0	11	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Levadia Tallinn win (58%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn 21%, draw 21%, FC Levadia Tallinn 58%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model expects 3.38 goals (FC Flora Tallinn 1.24 · FC Levadia Tallinn 2.14), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn vs FC Levadia Tallinn?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.