Football · USA MLS · 31/10, 20:00

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC

Team pages: St. Louis City SC · San Diego FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.02Total

St. Louis City SC2.31

San Diego FC1.71

1X2

51% 22% 28%

St. Louis City SC Draw San Diego FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDLLL

San Diego FC 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDDDL

Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 0–1–2 San Diego FC (3 last)

San Diego FC2-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-2San Diego FC
San Diego FC0-0St. Louis City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1519 · San Diego FC 1445

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	San Diego FC
Our model	51%	21%	28%
Market	50%	22%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1519 vs 1445).
H2H favours San Diego FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	San Diego FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.7	1.6 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.85▲	Bet365 1.85
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.55 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:37 +44’	1.80	4.10	3.40
14:40 +1’	1.85▲	4.20▲	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:45 +8’	1.84	4.52	3.37
05:02 +15’	1.85▲	4.59▲	3.41▲
05:26 +47’	1.85▼	4.55▼	3.39▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 0–1–2 San Diego FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 USA MLS	San Diego FC	2-0 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
11/05/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-2 HT 0-0	San Diego FC
02/03/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	0-0 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	32	15	9	8	58	49	54
3	St. Louis City SC	32	14	9	9	58	47	51
4	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
5	San Jose Earthquakes	32	13	10	9	54	47	49
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	Colorado Rapids	32	12	7	13	44	43	43
8	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
9	Real Salt Lake	32	12	6	14	50	49	42
10	LA Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45	54	41
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
13	San Diego FC	32	8	11	13	56	62	35
14	Austin FC	32	8	10	14	41	59	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	32	6	4	22	38	80	22

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	San Diego FC
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 D	1-4 L
LA Galaxy	6-2 W	2-2 D
New York Red Bulls	3-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St. Louis City SC

WDWWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-2	2-3	5	5	L
25/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	0	5	L
17/10	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	2-3	7	4	L
15/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
12/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	5-1	6-2	2	4	W
01/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
13/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-1	4-2	6	3	W
10/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W

San Diego FC

LLLDDLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	1-4	3	5	L
25/10	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-2	5	2	D
18/10	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-2	2-2	3	3	D
15/10	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-3	3-3	10	6	D
11/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-3	1-4	7	5	L
27/09	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	3-3	1	1	D
21/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
14/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-5	11	4	L
10/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	2-3	1	10	L
06/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (51%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 51%, draw 22%, San Diego FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC?

The model expects 4.02 goals (St. Louis City SC 2.31 · San Diego FC 1.71), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.