Football · USA MLS · 31/10, 22:00

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

San Jose Earthquakes1.63

Real Salt Lake1.44

1X2

42% 25% 33%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDDDLD

Real Salt Lake 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLDWWW

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 3–1–2 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Real Salt Lake1-1San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake2-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes4-0Real Salt Lake
San Jose Earthquakes0-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake0-2San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes2-1Real Salt Lake

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1518 · Real Salt Lake 1506

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Jose Earthquakes: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	2.50 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 5.2% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +13’	2.38	3.80	2.50
14:41 +2’	2.25▼	3.90▲	2.70▲
02:20 +3’	2.25	4.00▲	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:42 +11’	2.44	3.78	2.60
05:00 +18’	2.47▲	3.83▲	2.63▲
05:26 +47’	2.45▼	3.80▼	2.62▼
14:06 +37’	2.26▼	3.92▲	2.82▲
15:51 +36’	2.32▲	3.92	2.73▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 3–1–2 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/10/26 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	1-1 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
27/07/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
23/02/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	4-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
06/10/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
25/08/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-2 HT 0-2	San Jose Earthquakes
17/09/23 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-1 HT 2-1	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	32	17	7	8	67	33	58
2	FC Dallas	32	15	9	8	58	49	54
3	St. Louis City SC	32	14	9	9	58	47	51
4	Houston Dynamo	32	14	9	9	42	39	51
5	San Jose Earthquakes	32	13	10	9	54	47	49
6	Los Angeles FC	32	12	11	9	50	35	47
7	Colorado Rapids	32	12	7	13	44	43	43
8	Seattle Sounders	32	11	10	11	41	40	43
9	Real Salt Lake	32	12	6	14	50	49	42
10	LA Galaxy	32	10	11	11	45	54	41
11	Portland Timbers	32	11	7	14	57	60	40
12	Minnesota United	32	9	11	12	50	56	38
13	San Diego FC	32	8	11	13	56	62	35
14	Austin FC	32	8	10	14	41	59	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	32	6	4	22	38	80	22

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Jose Earthquakes	Real Salt Lake
Houston Dynamo	1-0 W	1-2 L
Austin FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Jose Earthquakes

DWWDWDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-2	11	9	D
25/10	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	2	L
18/10	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/10	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
11/10	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
27/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-0	3-1	5	3	W
20/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	18	4	D
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D

Real Salt Lake

LLLLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
25/10	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
18/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
15/10	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
11/10	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Jose Earthquakes win (42%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 42%, draw 25%, Real Salt Lake 33%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 3.07 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 1.63 · Real Salt Lake 1.44), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.