Football · USA MLS · 01/11, 22:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs Toronto FC

Team pages: Atlanta United · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Atlanta United1.79

Toronto FC1.67

1X2

40% 24% 35%

Atlanta United Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Toronto FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atlanta United 2–3–1 Toronto FC (6 last)

Toronto FC1-2Atlanta United
Atlanta United0-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC2-0Atlanta United
Toronto FC2-2Atlanta United

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atlanta United: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.91

Under 3.251.91

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:19

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.02 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.10
X	4.04 → 4.03▼	Pinn 4.03
2	3.26 → 3.03▼	Pinn 3.03

See the full journey (4)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:50 +24’	2.02	4.04	3.26
05:26 +52’	2.01▼	4.02▼	3.24▼
06:55 +24’	2.06▲	4.03▲	3.14▼
09:00 +19’	2.10▲	4.03	3.03▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 2–3–1 Toronto FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
24/08/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
13/07/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
30/06/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
24/03/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
16/04/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	31	21	7	3	66	23	70
2	New England Revolution	31	17	4	10	51	42	55
3	Inter Miami CF	31	15	10	6	73	53	55
4	Chicago Fire	31	15	6	10	55	46	51
5	Charlotte FC	31	13	8	10	55	48	47
6	Philadelphia Union	31	13	7	11	62	50	46
7	Orlando City SC	31	12	6	13	60	72	42
8	FC Cincinnati	31	11	9	11	64	71	42
9	New York Red Bulls	31	11	6	14	41	56	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	11	5	15	50	49	38
11	Toronto FC	31	8	12	11	48	59	36
12	New York City FC	31	8	11	12	45	43	35
13	DC United	31	7	12	12	38	55	33
14	Atlanta United	31	8	6	17	39	54	30
15	CF Montreal	31	6	7	18	36	62	25

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	Toronto FC
Chicago Fire	2-3 L	4-4 D
CF Montreal	3-0 W	2-1 W
New York City FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Orlando City SC	2-3 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Toronto FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	7	L
18/10	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
15/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
11/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	1-3	5	5	L
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L

Toronto FC

DDWLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	2-4	5	2	L
18/10	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
15/10	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/10	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
27/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	1	L
20/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (40%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 40%, draw 24%, Toronto FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Atlanta United 1.79 · Toronto FC 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.