Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 13/10, 17:00
Prediction: Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme United
Team pages: Harju JK Laagri · JK Nomme United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Harju JK Laagri1.77
JK Nomme United1.47
1X2
Harju JK Laagri
Draw
JK Nomme United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Harju JK Laagri
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
JK Nomme United
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Harju JK Laagri
4–2
JK Nomme United
(6 last)
- JK Nomme United1-2Harju JK Laagri
- Harju JK Laagri1-3JK Nomme United
- JK Nomme United1-2Harju JK Laagri
- Harju JK Laagri0-1JK Nomme United
- Harju JK Laagri3-0JK Nomme United
- Harju JK Laagri5-1JK Nomme United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Harju JK Laagri 1526 · JK Nomme United 1437
| Harju JK Laagri | Draw | JK Nomme United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harju JK Laagri (rating 1526 vs 1437).
- H2H favours Harju JK Laagri: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Harju JK Laagri | JK Nomme United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Harju JK Laagri 4–0–2 JK Nomme United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme United | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Harju JK Laagri |
| 20/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | Harju JK Laagri | 1-3 HT 1-0 | JK Nomme United |
| 18/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme United | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Harju JK Laagri |
| 30/10/25 Estonia Cup | Harju JK Laagri | 0-1 HT 0-0 | JK Nomme United |
| 14/08/24 Estonia Cup | Harju JK Laagri | 3-0 HT 1-0 | JK Nomme United |
| 22/10/22 Estonia Esiliiga | Harju JK Laagri | 5-1 HT 3-0 | JK Nomme United |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 82 | 21 | 75 |
| 2 | FC Flora Tallinn | 30 | 18 | 1 | 11 | 59 | 41 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide Linnameeskond | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 4 | JK Nomme Kalju | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 28 | 50 |
| 5 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 47 | 47 |
| 6 | Harju JK Laagri | 30 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 41 | 47 | 38 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 41 | 59 | 35 |
| 8 | FC Kuressaare | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 33 | 49 | 32 |
| 9 | JK Nomme United | 30 | 9 | 1 | 20 | 47 | 72 | 28 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 24 | 67 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Harju JK Laagri | JK Nomme United |
|---|---|---|
| JK Nomme Kalju | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Paide Linnameeskond | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| JK Tammeka Tartu | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 1-2 L | 0-5 L |
| FC Flora Tallinn | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Harju JK Laagri (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Harju JK Laagri
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 09/09 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
JK Nomme United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 08/09 | JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/08 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Harju JK Laagri win (44%). Probabilities: Harju JK Laagri 44%, draw 25%, JK Nomme United 31%.
How many goals are expected in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme United?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Harju JK Laagri 1.77 · JK Nomme United 1.47), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Harju JK Laagri vs JK Nomme United?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.