Prediction: Wellington Olympic vs FC Western
Expected goals: 4.59 (Wellington Olympic 3.3 · FC Western 1.3). The model gives 83% home, 10% draw, 7% away. Over 4.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Wellington Olympic sits at 7-1-2 (W-D-L), while FC Western arrives on a 1-2-7 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Wellington Olympic won 1 and FC Western 0.
| Wellington Olympic | Draw | FC Western | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 90% | 6% | 4% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wellington Olympic (rating 1566 vs 1408).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Wellington Olympic | FC Western | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 2.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Wellington Olympic 1–0–0 FC Western
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 New Zealand Central League | FC Western | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Wellington Olympic |
Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Napier City Rovers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 30 | 9 | 29 |
| 2 | Miramar Rangers | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 29 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Wellington Olympic | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 26 |
| 4 | Western Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 22 |
| 5 | Upper Hutt City | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 18 |
| 6 | Island Bay United | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 29 | 12 |
| 7 | Petone FC | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 11 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | Waterside Karori | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 33 | 8 |
| 10 | FC Western | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Wellington Olympic | FC Western |
|---|---|---|
| Napier City Rovers | 2-3 L | 1-6 L |
| Western Suburbs | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Waterside Karori | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Petone FC | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Upper Hutt City | 6-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Island Bay United | 5-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Wellington Olympic (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Wellington Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
FC Western
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 28/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-5 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Wellington Olympic vs FC Western?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Wellington Olympic win (83%). Probabilities: Wellington Olympic 83%, draw 10%, FC Western 7%.
How many goals are expected in Wellington Olympic vs FC Western?
The model expects 4.59 goals (Wellington Olympic 3.3 · FC Western 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Wellington Olympic vs FC Western?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.