Football · New Zealand Central League · 11/07, 04:30

Prediction: Miramar Rangers vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Miramar Rangers2.4

Wellington Phoenix Reserves0.97

1X2

69% 18% 14%

Miramar Rangers Draw Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Miramar Rangers 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWWWW

Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Miramar Rangers 4–2 Wellington Phoenix Reserves (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miramar Rangers 1646 · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1423

	Miramar Rangers	Draw	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Our model	68%	19%	13%
Market	69%	16%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Rangers (rating 1646 vs 1423).
H2H favours Miramar Rangers: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miramar Rangers	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.5	4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.1 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Miramar Rangers 4–0–2 Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	Miramar Rangers
25/10/25 New Zealand Football Championship	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	1-4 HT 1-2	Miramar Rangers
12/07/25 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-3 HT 1-1	Miramar Rangers
19/04/25 New Zealand Central League	Miramar Rangers	0-1 HT 0-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
08/06/24 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-0 HT 2-0	Miramar Rangers
30/03/24 New Zealand Central League	Miramar Rangers	4-0 HT 3-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	12	9	2	1	30	9	29
2	Miramar Rangers	12	9	2	1	29	10	29
3	Wellington Olympic	12	8	2	2	33	13	26
4	Western Suburbs	12	6	4	2	21	10	22
5	Upper Hutt City	12	6	0	6	22	21	18
6	Island Bay United	12	4	0	8	19	29	12
7	Petone FC	12	3	2	7	13	21	11
8	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	12	2	4	6	12	15	10
9	Waterside Karori	12	2	2	8	10	33	8
10	FC Western	12	1	2	9	8	36	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miramar Rangers	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Island Bay United	3-1 W	2-2 D
Upper Hutt City	3-2 W	0-1 L
Western Suburbs	2-0 W	0-1 L
Wellington Olympic	1-1 D	1-3 L
Napier City Rovers	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Western	3-1 W	1-1 D
Waterside Karori	6-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Miramar Rangers (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Miramar Rangers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Island Bay United New Zealand Cup	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
27/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	1-2	4-2	5	4	W
20/06	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	1-1	3-2	10	1	W
13/06	Western Suburbs New Zealand Cup	0-0	2-0	11	0	W
06/06	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
30/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Cup	0-0	2-1	2	0	W
23/05	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
16/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
10/05	FC Western New Zealand Central League	2-0	3-1	9	2	W
02/05	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	2-0	6-0	3	4	W

Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
27/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-2	10	0	L
03/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
23/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
16/05	Island Bay United New Zealand Central League	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
09/05	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	1-2	1-3	1	1	L
02/05	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
26/04	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miramar Rangers vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miramar Rangers win (69%). Probabilities: Miramar Rangers 69%, draw 18%, Wellington Phoenix Reserves 14%.

How many goals are expected in Miramar Rangers vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Miramar Rangers 2.4 · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0.97), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Miramar Rangers vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.