Football · New Zealand Southern League · 11/07, 08:00
Prediction: Christchurch United vs Ferrymead Bays
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Christchurch United1.46
Ferrymead Bays1.41
1X2
Christchurch United
Draw
Ferrymead Bays
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Christchurch United
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Ferrymead Bays
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Christchurch United
4–2
Ferrymead Bays
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Christchurch United 1480 · Ferrymead Bays 1527
| Christchurch United | Draw | Ferrymead Bays | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 40% | 22% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferrymead Bays (rating 1480 vs 1527).
- H2H favours Christchurch United: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Christchurch United | Ferrymead Bays | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 2.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Christchurch United 4–0–2 Ferrymead Bays
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Christchurch United |
| 11/07/25 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 11/04/25 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Christchurch United |
| 27/06/24 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 06/04/24 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 3-4 HT 3-1 | Christchurch United |
| 04/08/23 New Zealand Southern League | Christchurch United | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 22 |
| 4 | Nomads United | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 21 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 25 | 18 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 10 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Christchurch United | Ferrymead Bays |
|---|---|---|
| Nomads United | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Selwyn United | 4-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 0-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Coastal Spirit | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Nelson Suburbs | 1-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Northern AFC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Wanaka AFC | 4-2 W | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Ferrymead Bays (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Christchurch United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 27/04 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
2-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
Ferrymead Bays
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 27/04 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/04 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Christchurch United vs Ferrymead Bays?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Christchurch United win (39%). Probabilities: Christchurch United 39%, draw 25%, Ferrymead Bays 36%.
How many goals are expected in Christchurch United vs Ferrymead Bays?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Christchurch United 1.46 · Ferrymead Bays 1.41), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Christchurch United vs Ferrymead Bays?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.