Football · New Zealand Southern League · 22/08, 01:30
Prediction: Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs
Team pages: Ferrymead Bays · Nelson Suburbs
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.07Total
Ferrymead Bays1.96
Nelson Suburbs2.11
1X2
Ferrymead Bays
Draw
Nelson Suburbs
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ferrymead Bays
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Nelson Suburbs
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferrymead Bays
2–1–3
Nelson Suburbs
(6 last)
- Nelson Suburbs2-3Ferrymead Bays
- Ferrymead Bays1-0Nelson Suburbs
- Ferrymead Bays2-2Nelson Suburbs
- Nelson Suburbs4-1Ferrymead Bays
- Ferrymead Bays2-3Nelson Suburbs
- Nelson Suburbs4-2Ferrymead Bays
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferrymead Bays 1509 · Nelson Suburbs 1575
| Ferrymead Bays | Draw | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 22% | 42% |
| Market | 36% | 22% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nelson Suburbs (rating 1509 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Nelson Suburbs: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferrymead Bays | Nelson Suburbs | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.5 | 3.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.4 | 2.7 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferrymead Bays 2–1–3 Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 2-3 HT 2-3 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 21/06/25 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 14/06/25 New Zealand Cup | Ferrymead Bays | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 30/03/25 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 4-1 HT 0-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
| 17/08/24 New Zealand Southern League | Ferrymead Bays | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Nelson Suburbs |
| 19/05/24 New Zealand Southern League | Nelson Suburbs | 4-2 HT 1-0 | Ferrymead Bays |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 15 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 7 | 43 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 18 | 32 |
| 3 | Nomads United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 30 |
| 4 | Coastal Spirit | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 35 | 33 | 28 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 31 | 25 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 35 | 20 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 24 | 17 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 16 |
| 9 | Wanaka AFC | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 48 | 10 |
| 10 | Selwyn United | 16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 47 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ferrymead Bays | Nelson Suburbs |
|---|---|---|
| Nomads United | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Selwyn United | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Christchurch United | 0-0 D | 3-3 D |
| Northern AFC | 0-2 L | 11-0 W |
| Wanaka AFC | 5-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Nelson Suburbs (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferrymead Bays
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/08 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 11/07 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
2-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
Nelson Suburbs
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Fencibles United New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 11-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Northern AFC New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nelson Suburbs win (42%). Probabilities: Ferrymead Bays 36%, draw 22%, Nelson Suburbs 42%.
How many goals are expected in Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs?
The model expects 4.07 goals (Ferrymead Bays 1.96 · Nelson Suburbs 2.11), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferrymead Bays vs Nelson Suburbs?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.