Football · New Zealand Southern League · 11/07, 02:45
Prediction: Dunedin City Royals FC vs Selwyn United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.62Total
Dunedin City Royals FC2.29
Selwyn United1.34
1X2
Dunedin City Royals FC
Draw
Selwyn United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dunedin City Royals FC
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Selwyn United
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dunedin City Royals FC
3–3
Selwyn United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dunedin City Royals FC 1422 · Selwyn United 1399
| Dunedin City Royals FC | Draw | Selwyn United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 59% | 20% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunedin City Royals FC | Selwyn United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 3 | 1 / 3.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 2 | 0.5 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/10/80% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 2.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunedin City Royals FC 3–0–3 Selwyn United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 23/08/25 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Selwyn United |
| 24/05/25 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 2-5 HT 2-1 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 07/09/24 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 07/09/24 New Zealand Southern League | Selwyn United | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Dunedin City Royals FC |
| 25/05/24 New Zealand Southern League | Dunedin City Royals FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Selwyn United |
Standings · New Zealand Southern League · Southern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 58 | 6 | 34 |
| 2 | Ferrymead Bays | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Coastal Spirit | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 22 |
| 4 | Nomads United | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 21 |
| 5 | Nelson Suburbs | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 25 | 18 |
| 6 | Northern AFC | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 7 | Christchurch United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 8 | Dunedin City Royals FC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 10 |
| 9 | Selwyn United | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 7 |
| 10 | Wanaka AFC | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dunedin City Royals FC | Selwyn United |
|---|---|---|
| Cashmere Technical | 0-9 L | 1-4 L |
| Nelson Suburbs | 1-4 L | 0-6 L |
| Coastal Spirit | 0-2 L | 0-5 L |
| Christchurch United | 2-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Northern AFC | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Wanaka AFC | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Ferrymead Bays | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Nomads United | 0-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 6 L | 1 W 0 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Dunedin City Royals FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunedin City Royals FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Cup |
0-4 | 0-9 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-4 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-5 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 27/04 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Selwyn United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 06/06 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dunedin City Royals FC vs Selwyn United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dunedin City Royals FC win (58%). Probabilities: Dunedin City Royals FC 58%, draw 21%, Selwyn United 21%.
How many goals are expected in Dunedin City Royals FC vs Selwyn United?
The model expects 3.62 goals (Dunedin City Royals FC 2.29 · Selwyn United 1.34), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dunedin City Royals FC vs Selwyn United?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.