Football · New Zealand Northern League · 22/08, 05:00
Prediction: Western Springs AFC vs Tauranga City AFC
Team pages: Western Springs AFC · Tauranga City AFC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.08Total
Western Springs AFC1.79
Tauranga City AFC1.29
1X2
Western Springs AFC
Draw
Tauranga City AFC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Western Springs AFC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Tauranga City AFC
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Western Springs AFC
4–2
Tauranga City AFC
(6 last)
- Tauranga City AFC4-2Western Springs AFC
- Tauranga City AFC2-3Western Springs AFC
- Western Springs AFC0-3Tauranga City AFC
- Tauranga City AFC1-4Western Springs AFC
- Western Springs AFC7-1Tauranga City AFC
- Tauranga City AFC2-6Western Springs AFC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Western Springs AFC 1427 · Tauranga City AFC 1416
| Western Springs AFC | Draw | Tauranga City AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Western Springs AFC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Springs AFC | Tauranga City AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 3.3 | 1.8 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Springs AFC 4–0–2 Tauranga City AFC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 28/06/25 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 2-3 HT 0-3 | Western Springs AFC |
| 18/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 27/07/24 New Zealand Northern League | Tauranga City AFC | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 13/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 7-1 HT 5-1 | Tauranga City AFC |
| 24/06/18 New Zealand Cup | Tauranga City AFC | 2-6 HT 0-4 | Western Springs AFC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 11 | 56 |
| 2 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland City | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 20 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 52 | 35 | 37 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 20 | 35 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 27 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 37 | 21 |
| 9 | Melville United | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 47 | 17 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 51 | 15 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 22 | 46 | 12 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 70 | 7 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western Springs AFC | Tauranga City AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Manukau United | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Melville United | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Auckland United FC | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Auckland City | 0-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Auckland FC II | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| East Coast Bays | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Bay Olympic | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Fencibles United | 0-6 L | 1-7 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 6 L | 1 W 0 D 9 L |
Better against common opponents: Western Springs AFC (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western Springs AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
Tauranga City AFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-4 | 1-7 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 28/05 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western Springs AFC vs Tauranga City AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Western Springs AFC win (48%). Probabilities: Western Springs AFC 48%, draw 24%, Tauranga City AFC 27%.
How many goals are expected in Western Springs AFC vs Tauranga City AFC?
The model expects 3.08 goals (Western Springs AFC 1.79 · Tauranga City AFC 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Western Springs AFC vs Tauranga City AFC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.