Football · New Zealand Northern League · 22/08, 07:30

Prediction: Birkenhead United vs Fencibles United

Team pages: Birkenhead United · Fencibles United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Birkenhead United2.5

Fencibles United1.38

1X2

62% 19% 20%

Birkenhead United Draw Fencibles United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Birkenhead United 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWWWWW

Fencibles United 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Birkenhead United 3–1 Fencibles United (4 last)

Birkenhead United1-3Fencibles United
Fencibles United0-1Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United6-2Fencibles United
Fencibles United3-5Birkenhead United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birkenhead United 1592 · Fencibles United 1600

	Birkenhead United	Draw	Fencibles United
Our model	61%	20%	19%
Market	62%	18%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Birkenhead United: 3-0-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birkenhead United	Fencibles United
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.1	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.5	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.3 / 8.7	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X5.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:52 +4’	1.44	5.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Birkenhead United 3–0–1 Fencibles United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 New Zealand Cup	Birkenhead United	1-3 HT 1-1	Fencibles United
16/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Fencibles United	0-1 HT 0-0	Birkenhead United
16/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	6-2 HT 2-1	Fencibles United
10/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	Fencibles United	3-5 HT 0-5	Birkenhead United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	20	13	4	3	37	8	43
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	20	10	4	6	33	30	34
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	20	6	3	11	27	37	21
9	Melville United	20	5	2	13	23	47	17
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	20	3	3	14	22	46	12
12	Manukau United	20	2	1	17	13	70	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birkenhead United	Fencibles United
Melville United	4-1 W	3-2 W
Auckland United FC	4-0 W	4-1 W
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-1 D	1-4 L
Auckland City	3-2 W	0-3 L
Auckland FC II	2-0 W	2-1 W
Bay Olympic	6-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Birkenhead United (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Birkenhead United

WWLWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
08/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	4-0	6-1	9	2	W
01/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	13	4	W
18/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
11/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
13/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Cup	1-1	1-3	10	4	L
06/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-0	11	8	W
01/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup	3-1	6-2	10	7	W

Fencibles United

WWWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	3-0	4-1	2	2	W
15/08	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
08/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-4	3	1	L
01/08	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	Auckland City New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
18/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
11/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
04/07	South Auckland Rangers AFC New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
20/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birkenhead United vs Fencibles United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birkenhead United win (62%). Probabilities: Birkenhead United 62%, draw 19%, Fencibles United 20%.

How many goals are expected in Birkenhead United vs Fencibles United?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Birkenhead United 2.5 · Fencibles United 1.38), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Birkenhead United vs Fencibles United?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.