Football · New Zealand Northern League · 15/08, 05:00
Prediction: Melville United vs Auckland FC II
Team pages: Melville United · Auckland FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Melville United1.26
Auckland FC II1.71
1X2
Melville United
Draw
Auckland FC II
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Melville United
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Auckland FC II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Melville United
0–1
Auckland FC II
(1 last)
- Auckland FC II3-2Melville United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melville United 1461 · Auckland FC II 1487
| Melville United | Draw | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 22% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melville United | Auckland FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 3.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Melville United 0–0–1 Auckland FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland FC II | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Melville United |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 11 | 53 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 40 |
| 4 | Auckland United FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 16 | 35 |
| 5 | Fencibles United | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 34 | 34 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 24 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 36 | 21 |
| 9 | Melville United | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 42 | 17 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 46 | 15 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 12 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 19 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 70 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melville United | Auckland FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Western Springs AFC | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| East Coast Bays | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 1-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Bay Olympic | 1-1 D | 3-4 L |
| Fencibles United | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melville United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
Auckland FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 01/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melville United vs Auckland FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Auckland FC II win (48%). Probabilities: Melville United 28%, draw 24%, Auckland FC II 48%.
How many goals are expected in Melville United vs Auckland FC II?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Melville United 1.26 · Auckland FC II 1.71), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Melville United vs Auckland FC II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.