Football · New Zealand Northern League · 22/08, 05:00

Prediction: Manukau United vs Melville United

Team pages: Manukau United · Melville United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Manukau United1.07

Melville United2.21

1X2

17% 19% 63%

Manukau United Draw Melville United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Manukau United 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLW

Melville United 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLWWL

Head-to-head

Manukau United 2–3 Melville United (5 last)

Melville United2-0Manukau United
Manukau United2-1Melville United
Melville United1-0Manukau United
Manukau United0-4Melville United
Melville United0-1Manukau United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Manukau United 1403 · Melville United 1456

	Manukau United	Draw	Melville United
Our model	16%	21%	62%
Market	18%	18%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melville United (rating 1403 vs 1456).
H2H favours Melville United: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Manukau United	Melville United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3.4	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.5	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 1.9	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.00

X5.00

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)2.00

2 (-1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
X	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
2	1.40 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:52 +2’	5.00	5.00	1.40
13:42 +4’	4.00▼	4.75▼	1.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Manukau United 2–0–3 Melville United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	2-0 HT 1-0	Manukau United
15/07/23 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	2-1 HT 1-0	Melville United
15/04/23 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	1-0 HT 1-0	Manukau United
16/07/22 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	0-4 HT 0-1	Melville United
18/04/22 New Zealand Northern League	Melville United	0-1 HT 0-0	Manukau United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	20	18	2	0	56	11	56
2	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	20	13	4	3	37	8	43
3	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
4	Fencibles United	20	12	1	7	52	35	37
5	Auckland United FC	20	10	5	5	40	20	35
6	East Coast Bays	20	10	4	6	33	30	34
7	Auckland FC II	21	8	3	10	38	37	27
8	Western Springs AFC	20	6	3	11	27	37	21
9	Melville United	20	5	2	13	23	47	17
10	Bay Olympic	20	4	3	13	20	51	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	20	3	3	14	22	46	12
12	Manukau United	20	2	1	17	13	70	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Manukau United	Melville United
Western Springs AFC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Birkenhead United	1-6 L	1-4 L
Auckland United FC	0-6 L	0-3 L
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-7 L	0-4 L
Auckland FC II	2-3 L	1-5 L
East Coast Bays	0-2 L	2-0 W
Bay Olympic	0-1 L	1-1 D
Fencibles United	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Melville United (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Manukau United

WLLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
01/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-6	2	3	L
18/07	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-4	0-7	0	1	L
11/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
27/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	1	L
20/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
06/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
29/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W

Melville United

DLLLLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-5	4	1	L
08/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
01/08	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
18/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	1-3	1-4	3	3	L
11/07	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
04/07	Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
27/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
20/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
06/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-2	0-4	5	3	L
01/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Manukau United vs Melville United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melville United win (63%). Probabilities: Manukau United 17%, draw 19%, Melville United 63%.

How many goals are expected in Manukau United vs Melville United?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Manukau United 1.07 · Melville United 2.21), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Manukau United vs Melville United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.