Football · New Zealand Northern League · 22/08, 05:00
Prediction: Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs East Coast Bays
Team pages: Eastern Suburbs Auckland · East Coast Bays
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Eastern Suburbs Auckland2
East Coast Bays0.96
1X2
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Draw
East Coast Bays
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
East Coast Bays
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
2–2–2
East Coast Bays
(6 last)
- East Coast Bays1-0Eastern Suburbs Auckland
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland1-1East Coast Bays
- East Coast Bays0-1Eastern Suburbs Auckland
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland1-2East Coast Bays
- East Coast Bays1-3Eastern Suburbs Auckland
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland2-2East Coast Bays
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1565 · East Coast Bays 1487
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | Draw | East Coast Bays | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland (rating 1565 vs 1487).
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | East Coast Bays | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 44/22/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 8.2 | 2.1 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 2–2–2 East Coast Bays
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 19/07/25 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-1 HT 1-0 | East Coast Bays |
| 21/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 29/06/24 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-2 HT 1-2 | East Coast Bays |
| 01/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | East Coast Bays | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 09/06/18 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 2-2 HT 0-0 | East Coast Bays |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 11 | 56 |
| 2 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland City | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 20 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 52 | 35 | 37 |
| 5 | Auckland United FC | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 20 | 35 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 27 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 27 | 37 | 21 |
| 9 | Melville United | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 47 | 17 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 51 | 15 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 22 | 46 | 12 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 13 | 70 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | East Coast Bays |
|---|---|---|
| Bay Olympic | 5-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Fencibles United | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Manukau United | 7-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Western Springs AFC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Melville United | 4-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Auckland City | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs Auckland (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 17 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Melville United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
East Coast Bays
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs East Coast Bays?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Eastern Suburbs Auckland win (61%). Probabilities: Eastern Suburbs Auckland 61%, draw 21%, East Coast Bays 17%.
How many goals are expected in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs East Coast Bays?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Eastern Suburbs Auckland 2 · East Coast Bays 0.96), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs East Coast Bays?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.