Football · New Zealand Northern League · 15/08, 05:00

Prediction: Tauranga City AFC vs Birkenhead United

Team pages: Tauranga City AFC · Birkenhead United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Tauranga City AFC0.85

Birkenhead United2.75

1X2

9% 14% 77%

Tauranga City AFC Draw Birkenhead United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Tauranga City AFC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Birkenhead United 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tauranga City AFC 2–1–2 Birkenhead United (5 last)

Birkenhead United2-0Tauranga City AFC
Tauranga City AFC1-2Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United0-1Tauranga City AFC
Tauranga City AFC3-2Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United3-3Tauranga City AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tauranga City AFC 1417 · Birkenhead United 1589

	Tauranga City AFC	Draw	Birkenhead United
Our model	8%	15%	76%
Market	9%	14%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1417 vs 1589).
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tauranga City AFC	Birkenhead United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.5	3.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	1.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	5.1 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

110.00

X6.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.93

2 (-2)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 9.50▼	Bet365 9.50
X	6.50 → 6.25▼	Pinn 6.72 ★
2	1.17 → 1.18▲	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +3’	10.00	6.50	1.17
00:34 +6’	9.50▼	6.25▼	1.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:59 +4’	9.33	6.72	1.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tauranga City AFC 2–1–2 Birkenhead United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	2-0 HT 0-0	Tauranga City AFC
02/08/25 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	1-2 HT 1-0	Birkenhead United
26/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	0-1 HT 0-1	Tauranga City AFC
24/08/24 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	3-2 HT 2-0	Birkenhead United
03/06/24 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	3-3 HT 2-0	Tauranga City AFC

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	19	17	2	0	53	11	53
2	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	19	12	4	3	32	7	40
4	Auckland United FC	19	10	5	4	39	16	35
5	Fencibles United	19	11	1	7	48	34	34
6	East Coast Bays	20	10	4	6	33	30	34
7	Auckland FC II	20	7	3	10	33	36	24
8	Western Springs AFC	19	6	3	10	27	36	21
9	Melville United	19	5	2	12	22	42	17
10	Bay Olympic	19	4	3	12	19	46	15
11	Tauranga City AFC	19	3	3	13	22	43	12
12	Manukau United	19	1	1	17	12	70	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tauranga City AFC	Birkenhead United
Auckland United FC	0-3 L	4-0 W
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	0-1 L	1-1 D
Auckland City	2-3 L	3-2 W
Auckland FC II	1-2 L	2-0 W
East Coast Bays	1-2 L	3-1 W
Bay Olympic	1-2 L	6-2 W
Fencibles United	1-7 L	1-3 L
Melville United	1-0 W	4-1 W
Manukau United	2-3 L	6-1 W
Western Springs AFC	4-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 8 L	8 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birkenhead United (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tauranga City AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
01/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
18/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	2	2	L
11/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
20/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-4	1-7	1	4	L
28/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	10	8	W
23/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
16/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-2	2	3	W

Birkenhead United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	4-0	6-1	9	2	W
01/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	13	4	W
18/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
11/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
13/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Cup	1-1	1-3	10	4	L
06/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-0	11	8	W
01/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup	3-1	6-2	10	7	W
28/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-1	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tauranga City AFC vs Birkenhead United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Birkenhead United win (77%). Probabilities: Tauranga City AFC 9%, draw 14%, Birkenhead United 77%.

How many goals are expected in Tauranga City AFC vs Birkenhead United?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Tauranga City AFC 0.85 · Birkenhead United 2.75), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tauranga City AFC vs Birkenhead United?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.