Football · New Zealand Northern League · 08/08, 05:00

Prediction: Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Fencibles United

Team pages: Eastern Suburbs Auckland · Fencibles United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Eastern Suburbs Auckland1.83

Fencibles United0.93

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Eastern Suburbs Auckland Draw Fencibles United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Eastern Suburbs Auckland 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWLDWWW

Fencibles United 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Eastern Suburbs Auckland 4–0 Fencibles United (4 last)

Fencibles United0-1Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Fencibles United0-2Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Eastern Suburbs Auckland3-1Fencibles United
Fencibles United1-3Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1552 · Fencibles United 1595

	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Draw	Fencibles United
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fencibles United (rating 1552 vs 1595).
H2H favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland: 4-0-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Fencibles United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.3	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	1.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 8.8	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.90 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +5’	1.50	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +13’	1.47	4.13	4.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 4–0–0 Fencibles United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Fencibles United	0-1 HT 0-1	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
26/07/25 New Zealand Cup	Fencibles United	0-2 HT 0-0	Eastern Suburbs Auckland
31/05/25 New Zealand Northern League	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	3-1 HT 1-1	Fencibles United
29/03/25 New Zealand Northern League	Fencibles United	1-3 HT 0-1	Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	18	16	2	0	47	10	50
2	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	18	11	4	3	28	6	37
4	Fencibles United	18	11	1	6	47	30	34
5	East Coast Bays	19	10	4	5	33	28	34
6	Auckland United FC	18	9	5	4	36	16	32
7	Auckland FC II	19	6	3	10	31	36	21
8	Western Springs AFC	18	6	3	9	27	34	21
9	Bay Olympic	19	4	3	12	19	46	15
10	Melville United	18	4	2	12	20	42	14
11	Tauranga City AFC	18	3	3	12	22	40	12
12	Manukau United	18	1	1	16	11	64	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	Fencibles United
Tauranga City AFC	1-0 W	7-1 W
Manukau United	7-0 W	2-1 W
Birkenhead United	1-1 D	3-1 W
Melville United	4-0 W	3-2 W
Auckland City	0-0 D	0-3 L
Auckland FC II	1-0 W	2-1 W
East Coast Bays	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Eastern Suburbs Auckland

LWDDWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
18/07	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	4-0	7-0	17	1	W
11/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/06	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
06/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	4-0	11	3	W
01/06	Melville United New Zealand Cup	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
30/05	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/05	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	12	2	W
16/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L

Fencibles United

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	Auckland City New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
18/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
11/07	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
04/07	South Auckland Rangers AFC New Zealand Cup	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
20/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
13/06	Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
06/06	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	4-1	7-1	8	4	W
29/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Fencibles United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Eastern Suburbs Auckland win (58%). Probabilities: Eastern Suburbs Auckland 58%, draw 23%, Fencibles United 19%.

How many goals are expected in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Fencibles United?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1.83 · Fencibles United 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Eastern Suburbs Auckland vs Fencibles United?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.