Football · New Zealand Northern League · 15/08, 05:00
Prediction: Bay Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Team pages: Bay Olympic · Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Bay Olympic0.67
Eastern Suburbs Auckland2.11
1X2
Bay Olympic
Draw
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Bay Olympic
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bay Olympic
2–2–2
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
(6 last)
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland2-0Bay Olympic
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland3-3Bay Olympic
- Bay Olympic2-1Eastern Suburbs Auckland
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland1-0Bay Olympic
- Bay Olympic2-1Eastern Suburbs Auckland
- Eastern Suburbs Auckland1-1Bay Olympic
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bay Olympic 1462 · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 1577
| Bay Olympic | Draw | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| Market | 11% | 17% | 72% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland (rating 1462 vs 1577).
- High corners: 13.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay Olympic | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.7 | 1.9 / 0.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 3.3 / 8.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay Olympic 2–2–2 Eastern Suburbs Auckland
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 07/06/25 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Bay Olympic |
| 22/03/25 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 08/06/24 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 23/03/24 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
| 12/08/23 New Zealand Northern League | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bay Olympic |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 53 | 11 | 53 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 7 | 40 |
| 4 | Auckland United FC | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 16 | 35 |
| 5 | Fencibles United | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 48 | 34 | 34 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 24 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 27 | 36 | 21 |
| 9 | Melville United | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 42 | 17 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 46 | 15 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 12 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 19 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 12 | 70 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bay Olympic | Eastern Suburbs Auckland |
|---|---|---|
| Auckland FC II | 4-3 W | 1-0 W |
| Auckland City | 1-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Melville United | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Fencibles United | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Manukau United | 1-0 W | 7-0 W |
| Birkenhead United | 2-6 L | 1-1 D |
| Western Springs AFC | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 6 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs Auckland (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bay Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 4-3 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 29/07 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
Eastern Suburbs Auckland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 17 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 27/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Melville United New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/05 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bay Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Eastern Suburbs Auckland win (71%). Probabilities: Bay Olympic 10%, draw 19%, Eastern Suburbs Auckland 71%.
How many goals are expected in Bay Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Bay Olympic 0.67 · Eastern Suburbs Auckland 2.11), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bay Olympic vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.