Football · New Zealand Northern League · 08/08, 07:30
Prediction: Western Springs AFC vs Melville United
Team pages: Western Springs AFC · Melville United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
Western Springs AFC2.1
Melville United1.06
1X2
Western Springs AFC
Draw
Melville United
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Western Springs AFC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Melville United
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Western Springs AFC
3–1–2
Melville United
(6 last)
- Melville United1-3Western Springs AFC
- Western Springs AFC2-1Melville United
- Melville United1-4Western Springs AFC
- Western Springs AFC3-3Melville United
- Melville United1-0Western Springs AFC
- Melville United2-1Western Springs AFC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Western Springs AFC 1481 · Melville United 1436
| Western Springs AFC | Draw | Melville United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Springs AFC (rating 1481 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Western Springs AFC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Western Springs AFC | Melville United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.7 | 2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Springs AFC 3–1–2 Melville United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Western Springs AFC |
| 03/08/24 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Melville United |
| 11/05/24 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Western Springs AFC |
| 02/09/23 New Zealand Northern League | Western Springs AFC | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Melville United |
| 29/07/23 New Zealand Cup | Melville United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Western Springs AFC |
| 27/05/23 New Zealand Northern League | Melville United | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Western Springs AFC |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 18 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 47 | 10 | 50 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 50 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 6 | 37 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 47 | 30 | 34 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 28 | 34 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 16 | 32 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 34 | 21 |
| 9 | Bay Olympic | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 46 | 15 |
| 10 | Melville United | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 20 | 42 | 14 |
| 11 | Tauranga City AFC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 40 | 12 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 64 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Western Springs AFC | Melville United |
|---|---|---|
| Birkenhead United | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Auckland United FC | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Auckland City | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| East Coast Bays | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Bay Olympic | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Fencibles United | 0-6 L | 2-3 L |
| Tauranga City AFC | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 1 W 1 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Western Springs AFC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Western Springs AFC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/05 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Melville United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Hibiscus Coast New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Auckland City New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Western Springs AFC vs Melville United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Western Springs AFC win (61%). Probabilities: Western Springs AFC 61%, draw 22%, Melville United 18%.
How many goals are expected in Western Springs AFC vs Melville United?
The model expects 3.16 goals (Western Springs AFC 2.1 · Melville United 1.06), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Western Springs AFC vs Melville United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.