Football · New Zealand Northern League · 08/08, 07:00

Prediction: Birkenhead United vs Manukau United

Team pages: Birkenhead United · Manukau United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.88Total

Birkenhead United3.44

Manukau United1.44

1X2

84% 9% 7%

Birkenhead United Draw Manukau United

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Birkenhead United 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDWWW

Manukau United 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Birkenhead United 4–2 Manukau United (6 last)

Manukau United1-5Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United2-3Manukau United
Manukau United0-7Birkenhead United
Birkenhead United2-1Manukau United
Manukau United0-4Birkenhead United
Manukau United4-1Birkenhead United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birkenhead United 1603 · Manukau United 1375

	Birkenhead United	Draw	Manukau United
Our model	75%	14%	12%
Market	92%	5%	3%

Estimated total (ours) 4.88 goals · Bet365 line 5.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birkenhead United (rating 1603 vs 1375).
H2H favours Birkenhead United: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birkenhead United	Manukau United
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.1	0.6 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.9 / 9.4	1.4 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.04

X21.00

229.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-3.75)1.82

2 (+3.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 5.251.90

Under 5.251.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03
X	23.00 → 19.00▼	Bet365 19.00
2	29.00 → 41.00▲	Bet365 41.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:16 +2’	1.03	23.00	29.00
00:46 +7’	1.04▲	21.00▼	29.00
02:53 +4’	1.03▼	19.00▼	41.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Birkenhead United 4–0–2 Manukau United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	1-5 HT 1-1	Birkenhead United
16/08/23 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	2-3 HT 1-1	Manukau United
01/04/23 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	0-7 HT 0-4	Birkenhead United
03/09/22 New Zealand Northern League	Birkenhead United	2-1 HT 0-1	Manukau United
28/05/22 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	0-4 HT 0-1	Birkenhead United
26/05/18 New Zealand Northern League	Manukau United	4-1 HT 0-0	Birkenhead United

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	18	16	2	0	47	10	50
2	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	18	11	4	3	28	6	37
4	Fencibles United	18	11	1	6	47	30	34
5	East Coast Bays	19	10	4	5	33	28	34
6	Auckland United FC	18	9	5	4	36	16	32
7	Auckland FC II	19	6	3	10	31	36	21
8	Western Springs AFC	18	6	3	9	27	34	21
9	Bay Olympic	19	4	3	12	19	46	15
10	Melville United	18	4	2	12	20	42	14
11	Tauranga City AFC	18	3	3	12	22	40	12
12	Manukau United	18	1	1	16	11	64	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birkenhead United	Manukau United
Western Springs AFC	2-1 W	0-5 L
Melville United	4-1 W	0-2 L
Auckland United FC	4-0 W	0-6 L
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-1 D	0-7 L
Auckland City	3-2 W	0-5 L
Fencibles United	1-3 L	1-2 L
Auckland FC II	2-0 W	2-3 L
Bay Olympic	6-2 W	0-1 L
East Coast Bays	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 9 L

Better against common opponents: Birkenhead United (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Birkenhead United

WWWWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-1	13	4	W
18/07	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
11/07	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
27/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
20/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	3-1	3-2	6	4	W
13/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Cup	1-1	1-3	10	4	L
06/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	2-0	2-0	11	8	W
01/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Cup	3-1	6-2	10	7	W
28/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-1	9	1	W
23/05	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	3-0	6-0	13	2	W

Manukau United

LLWLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-6	2	3	L
18/07	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-4	0-7	0	1	L
11/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	2	1	L
27/06	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	3	1	L
20/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
06/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
29/05	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
16/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
09/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-5	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birkenhead United vs Manukau United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birkenhead United win (84%). Probabilities: Birkenhead United 84%, draw 9%, Manukau United 7%.

How many goals are expected in Birkenhead United vs Manukau United?

The model expects 4.88 goals (Birkenhead United 3.44 · Manukau United 1.44), with a 55% chance of under 5.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Birkenhead United vs Manukau United?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.