Football · New Zealand Northern League · 08/08, 05:00

Prediction: Auckland United FC vs Tauranga City AFC

Team pages: Auckland United FC · Tauranga City AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Auckland United FC2.51

Tauranga City AFC0.93

1X2

71% 17% 12%

Auckland United FC Draw Tauranga City AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Auckland United FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDLDLW

Tauranga City AFC 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Auckland United FC 4–1 Tauranga City AFC (5 last)

Tauranga City AFC0-3Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC2-0Tauranga City AFC
Tauranga City AFC1-0Auckland United FC
Auckland United FC4-2Tauranga City AFC
Tauranga City AFC1-4Auckland United FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Auckland United FC 1530 · Tauranga City AFC 1416

	Auckland United FC	Draw	Tauranga City AFC
Our model	71%	18%	11%
Market	72%	16%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland United FC (rating 1530 vs 1416).
H2H favours Auckland United FC: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Auckland United FC	Tauranga City AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.6 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.4	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Pinn 1.25 ★
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 13.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:15 +1’	1.25	5.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +13’	1.25	5.27	6.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland United FC 4–0–1 Tauranga City AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	0-3 HT 0-2	Auckland United FC
19/07/25 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Tauranga City AFC
21/04/25 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	1-0 HT 1-0	Auckland United FC
22/06/24 New Zealand Northern League	Auckland United FC	4-2 HT 0-1	Tauranga City AFC
29/03/24 New Zealand Northern League	Tauranga City AFC	1-4 HT 0-2	Auckland United FC

Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Birkenhead United	18	16	2	0	47	10	50
2	Auckland City	21	13	3	5	50	19	42
3	Eastern Suburbs Auckland	18	11	4	3	28	6	37
4	Fencibles United	18	11	1	6	47	30	34
5	East Coast Bays	19	10	4	5	33	28	34
6	Auckland United FC	18	9	5	4	36	16	32
7	Auckland FC II	19	6	3	10	31	36	21
8	Western Springs AFC	18	6	3	9	27	34	21
9	Bay Olympic	19	4	3	12	19	46	15
10	Melville United	18	4	2	12	20	42	14
11	Tauranga City AFC	18	3	3	12	22	40	12
12	Manukau United	18	1	1	16	11	64	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Auckland United FC	Tauranga City AFC
Manukau United	6-0 W	2-3 L
Western Springs AFC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Birkenhead United	0-4 L	0-2 L
Melville United	3-0 W	1-0 W
Eastern Suburbs Auckland	1-0 W	0-1 L
Auckland City	1-1 D	2-3 L
Auckland FC II	0-2 L	1-2 L
East Coast Bays	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Auckland United FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Auckland United FC

WLDWWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-0	6-0	2	3	W
26/07	Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Cup	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
18/07	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
11/07	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
04/07	Cambridge FC New Zealand Cup	0-0	1-1	14	8	D
27/06	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	9	0	W
20/06	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
06/06	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
28/05	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
23/05	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	2-0	3-0	4	2	W

Tauranga City AFC

LWLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Eastern Suburbs Auckland New Zealand Northern League	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
18/07	Auckland City New Zealand Northern League	1-2	2-3	2	2	L
11/07	Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
20/06	Bay Olympic New Zealand Northern League	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/06	Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League	1-4	1-7	1	4	L
28/05	Melville United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	1-0	10	8	W
23/05	Manukau United New Zealand Northern League	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
16/05	Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
09/05	Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League	0-0	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Auckland United FC vs Tauranga City AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland United FC win (71%). Probabilities: Auckland United FC 71%, draw 17%, Tauranga City AFC 12%.

How many goals are expected in Auckland United FC vs Tauranga City AFC?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Auckland United FC 2.51 · Tauranga City AFC 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Auckland United FC vs Tauranga City AFC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.