Football · New Zealand Northern League · 29/07, 09:30
Prediction: Auckland City vs Bay Olympic
Team pages: Auckland City · Bay Olympic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.27Total
Auckland City3.14
Bay Olympic1.14
1X2
Auckland City
Draw
Bay Olympic
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Auckland City
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Bay Olympic
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Auckland City
4–2
Bay Olympic
(6 last)
- Bay Olympic1-4Auckland City
- Bay Olympic1-0Auckland City
- Auckland City1-0Bay Olympic
- Bay Olympic0-2Auckland City
- Auckland City0-1Bay Olympic
- Bay Olympic0-1Auckland City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Auckland City 1552 · Bay Olympic 1435
| Auckland City | Draw | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 80% | 12% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland City (rating 1552 vs 1435).
- H2H favours Auckland City: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Auckland City | Bay Olympic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 7.7 | 2.6 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Auckland City 4–0–2 Bay Olympic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Auckland City |
| 19/07/25 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Auckland City |
| 21/04/25 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bay Olympic |
| 03/08/24 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Auckland City |
| 24/04/24 New Zealand Northern League | Auckland City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bay Olympic |
| 10/06/23 New Zealand Northern League | Bay Olympic | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Auckland City |
Standings · New Zealand Northern League · Northern League 2026
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birkenhead United | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 45 | 9 | 47 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 19 | 39 |
| 3 | Eastern Suburbs Auckland | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 6 | 34 |
| 4 | Fencibles United | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 47 | 27 | 34 |
| 5 | East Coast Bays | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 26 | 34 |
| 6 | Auckland United FC | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 16 | 29 |
| 7 | Auckland FC II | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Springs AFC | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 32 | 21 |
| 9 | Tauranga City AFC | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 22 | 39 | 12 |
| 10 | Bay Olympic | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 43 | 12 |
| 11 | Melville United | 17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 11 |
| 12 | Manukau United | 17 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 58 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Auckland City | Bay Olympic |
|---|---|---|
| Fencibles United | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| East Coast Bays | 3-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Tauranga City AFC | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Manukau United | 5-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Auckland FC II | 2-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Western Springs AFC | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Birkenhead United | 2-3 L | 2-6 L |
| Auckland United FC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Auckland City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Fencibles United New Zealand Cup |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-3 | 3-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Takapuna New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Bay Olympic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | East Coast Bays New Zealand Northern League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Melville United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Auckland FC II New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Fencibles United New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Tauranga City AFC New Zealand Northern League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Manukau United New Zealand Northern League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Cup |
1-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Western Springs AFC New Zealand Northern League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Birkenhead United New Zealand Northern League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Auckland United FC New Zealand Northern League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Auckland City vs Bay Olympic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Auckland City win (78%). Probabilities: Auckland City 78%, draw 13%, Bay Olympic 9%.
How many goals are expected in Auckland City vs Bay Olympic?
The model expects 4.27 goals (Auckland City 3.14 · Bay Olympic 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Auckland City vs Bay Olympic?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.