Football · New Zealand Central League · 22/08, 05:45

Prediction: Island Bay United vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Team pages: Island Bay United · Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Island Bay United1.47

Wellington Phoenix Reserves1.62

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Island Bay United Draw Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Island Bay United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Wellington Phoenix Reserves 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Island Bay United 0–1–5 Wellington Phoenix Reserves (6 last)

Wellington Phoenix Reserves2-2Island Bay United
Wellington Phoenix Reserves3-1Island Bay United
Wellington Phoenix Reserves4-1Island Bay United
Island Bay United1-5Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Island Bay United1-3Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Wellington Phoenix Reserves2-1Island Bay United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Island Bay United 1442 · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1452

	Island Bay United	Draw	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	35%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Wellington Phoenix Reserves: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Island Bay United	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.3	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	3.9 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +18’	2.55	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Island Bay United 0–1–5 Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/06/26 New Zealand Cup	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-2 HT 2-2	Island Bay United
16/05/26 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	3-1 HT 2-1	Island Bay United
21/06/25 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	4-1 HT 2-1	Island Bay United
05/04/25 New Zealand Central League	Island Bay United	1-5 HT 0-1	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
25/05/24 New Zealand Central League	Island Bay United	1-3 HT 0-0	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
08/05/24 New Zealand Central League	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	2-1 HT 2-1	Island Bay United

Standings · New Zealand Central League · Central League 2026

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Napier City Rovers	16	13	2	1	44	12	41
2	Wellington Olympic	16	12	2	2	50	15	38
3	Miramar Rangers	16	11	4	1	43	11	37
4	Western Suburbs	16	9	5	2	29	13	32
5	Upper Hutt City	16	6	0	10	27	36	18
6	Island Bay United	16	5	1	10	24	35	16
7	Waterside Karori	16	4	3	9	15	38	15
8	Petone FC	16	3	3	10	14	29	12
9	Wellington Phoenix Reserves	16	2	5	9	15	22	11
10	FC Western	16	1	3	12	10	60	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Island Bay United	Wellington Phoenix Reserves
Upper Hutt City	4-2 W	0-1 L
FC Western	0-0 D	1-1 D
Wellington Olympic	1-2 L	0-2 L
Western Suburbs	0-2 L	2-2 D
Miramar Rangers	1-3 L	0-1 L
Napier City Rovers	0-1 L	1-2 L
Waterside Karori	0-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Wellington Phoenix Reserves (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Island Bay United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	2-0	4-2	2	4	W
01/08	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	18	0	D
18/07	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
11/07	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
04/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Cup	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
27/06	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	2-1	2-4	12	4	L
20/06	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
06/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-3	0-4	2	4	L
03/06	Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/05	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-3	2	0	L

Wellington Phoenix Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
01/08	Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League	1-0	2-2	5	0	D
18/07	Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
11/07	Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
27/06	Petone FC New Zealand Central League	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
20/06	Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
07/06	FC Western New Zealand Central League	0-2	1-2	10	0	L
03/06	Island Bay United New Zealand Cup	2-2	2-2	6	2	D
23/05	Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League	0-0	0-1	11	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Island Bay United vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wellington Phoenix Reserves win (41%). Probabilities: Island Bay United 34%, draw 25%, Wellington Phoenix Reserves 41%.

How many goals are expected in Island Bay United vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Island Bay United 1.47 · Wellington Phoenix Reserves 1.62), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Island Bay United vs Wellington Phoenix Reserves?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.